Wednesday, September 26, 2018

NJ And Nevada Reps Send Letter, Warn Congress To Tread Carefully With Sports Betting

NJ And Nevada Reps Send Letter, Warn Congress To Tread Carefully With Sports Betting
banana peel

In a new letter, Nevada Rep. Dina Titus and New Jersey Rep. Tom MacArthur urge Congress to be cautious when considering a federal sports betting plan.

The post NJ And Nevada Reps Send Letter, Warn Congress To Tread Carefully With Sports Betting appeared first on .

Essential Advice for Profitable Betting on the NBA Preseason

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Essential Advice for Profitable Betting on the NBA Preseason

It feels like the NBA just left us, but it’s actually already due back in just a matter of days. The return of The Association arrives on Friday, September 28th, when the Boston Celtics and Charlotte Hornets wage war.

The game itself is meaningless and is just one of many in a long string of pointless exhibition contests. Still, there is work to be done as all 30 NBA franchises get ready for the new season, and best of all, sports bettors can make money along the way.

In addition, new coaches are testing out their systems and rotations, while rookies are trying to learn the nuances of the games while also cementing roles.

Some first-year players will have a bigger impact than others, but precisely what type of role they carve out could actually have a huge impact on the 2018-19 NBA betting season.

But let’s first start off with NBA preseason betting.

It’s volatile, a little bit crazy, and certainly out of your control. However, it can be a lot of fun and even quite profitable if you pick the right teams in the right spots.

Of course, that’s always easier said than done.

To get you ready for a (hopefully) successful run through the 2018-19 NBA preseason, let’s go over some keys to profiting in this difficult sports betting genre.

Nobody Knows Anything

I know you came here for expert advice, but nothing is quite more transparent than this: nobody truly knows what to expect in preseason contests.

That branches out to all sports, but with very little under anyone’s control, predicting how NBA preseason games will go is rather difficult.

While very true, that also helps bettors because Vegas isn’t always going to know how to price games. They won’t have all of the information for each game every single night, so that leveled playing field actually can work to your advantage.

You need to do a lot of work to gain leverage in NBA preseason betting, but take solace in the fact that even the best NBA sportsbooks setting the lines probably don’t know much more than you.

What Do Coaches Do?

I think one of the most important aspects of preseason NBA betting is knowing the coaches, their assistants, and how teams in general go about their business.

Here are a few things to consider.

Coaching systems, styles, and game-planning Coach intensity and personality Player minutes handling Superstar handling Rookie roles Rest and scheduling

All of these aspects are one-offs to keep in mind in all sports betting circles, but for NBA preseason wagers, they can apply to any given NBA coach as well.

Some coaches like to run their starters into the ground even though it’s the preseason. Tom Thibodeau is notorious for this during the regular season, and that’s something that can leak into preseason play as well.

Others play it safe with their top players and rest them or limit them more than most. Steve Kerr can do this with the Warriors, and that can extend to any teams with star players that spend a lot of time going deep into the playoffs.

There are other coaches who give zero heads up as to what they’re doing with their rosters and/or shake things up more often than bettors would prefer.

In the past, Portland head coach Terry Stotts has been infatuated with being secretive with the status of his players, while Denver’s Michael Malone and others have shaken up rotations and starting lineups seemingly just to mess with everyone.

I’m sure that’s not actually the case, but every coach has a different philosophy and approach, both to games that matter and the ones that don’t.

Learn who the coaches are and what they tend to do during preseason, and that can greatly assist you when it comes to trying to match teams up in order to come away with an accurate pick.
Track Injuries and Starting Lineups

Just as important as paying attention to coach styles and tendencies is keeping track of the actual players. I do think that how the coaches operate has a direct impact on the ultimate status of the players, but they also can work together.

This isn’t just about keeping tabs on players from a day-to-day perspective. You should also note anyone who has had serious injuries in the past, what they did during the offseason, and/or whether or not they had anything from last year that may have bled into training camp.

Gordon Hayward is an obvious name that stands out.

He was badly injured in the first game of the season and didn’t play the rest of the year. The odds are decent that Boston will hold him out at points in the preseason and restrict him even if/when he does suit up.

Injuries aside, there are going to be other periods during the preseason where players get their rest days.

One easy way to get ahead of lineups is to just look at the scheduling. Teams will often rest players at some point during back-to-back sets, and any teams playing in consecutive days during the preseason will be at even greater risk to sit their key players.

It is going to take a lot more research and dedication than normal to actually get good information on player activity during the preseason. However, the harder you work, the better edge you’ll have on Vegas.

What Players Have Something to Prove?

When the top stars are being rested due to scheduling, injury, or something else, it’s up to you to know every narrative floating around the league so that you know which players stand to benefit and how they might perform.

Obviously, a team resting their top players is going to be at a severe disadvantage if they’re facing a team that isn’t doing so. However, if both teams are limiting or sitting their top talents, the next thing to look for are players motivated to prove themselves, secure a roster spot, or even carve out a big role for the upcoming season.

Training camp and preseason exists for refinement and so the NBA can make easy money, but it’s also there for gems to smooth out their game and see if they can’t earn their keep.

This can come in many forms, whether it’s highly-touted rookies, second-round picks, undrafted players, summer league stars, journeyman veterans, or low-level assets acquired in trades.

Remember, the starting five is what you usually lean on during the regular season and the playoffs, but when it comes to preseason NBA betting, you want to know every team’s full roster, front and back.

The better you know every player, the more matchups come into play for NBA preseason wagers.

Knowing the rosters inside out will make it easier to find spots where you can make confident predictions about a game. You’ll uncover more opportunities to get money down when you have a genuine edge over the bookmakers.

Get Social and Proactive

Two tips in one here, as I think being active on social media and also digging deep for player and team research is extremely key in actually winning in NBA preseason betting at a consistent rate.

I’d say that against the spread data really isn’t that prevalent in this betting genre, but there is still a lot that can be taken from coaching tendencies, player drive, and simply being privy to information.

Twitter is probably the best social platform for getting solid insight and current news on players, their narratives, and surprise status changes.

You can’t just blindly accept one or two reports on Twitter, however. Be diligent in fact-checking and don’t rely on any one piece of data to help you come to a conclusion.

Regular-season NBA betting tends to be easier in that regard, but with so many extra variables in NBA preseason wagering, you need to get as much information as possible to help you make an informed decision.

Place Bets Early

Depending on pricing and the news that is available, it can often be profitable to place your wagers well ahead of game time.

Usually, NBA lines come out the night before a game and are adjusted a few times the day of the contest. The night before may be a bit too early in some spots – especially in exhibition games – but once those first full lines are out, you can pounce if you feel you have enough information and can exploit the pricing.

I’d personally only go hard at early lines if odds stood out to me in glaring fashion. However, the closer you get to the game, everyone will be privy to player and team news (especially the bookmakers), so betting on your wager before the lines could potentially move may allow you to maximize your betting value.

Target Underdogs

Another great approach when it comes to preseason NBA betting is simply finding attractive underdogs to go after.

This doesn’t mean to only bet on underdogs or to bet on every upset pick you come across.

Value is something you have to assess on your own, and eventually, you’ll just know it when you see it, but due to the volatility of this betting genre, you do want to give yourself a little wiggle room in the event things don’t shake out as expected.

That’s going to happen a lot, too.

Players will get scratched, minor injuries will end their night, coaches will wave the white flag earlier than usual, and if some really weird stuff pops up, games will be canceled out of nowhere.

Nobody really cares about these guys, and that includes the players and coaches. They’re not going to sacrifice their health, much less any kind of negative impact on the actual season, just to win a meaningless preseason game.

More than just targeting underdogs, though, I’d really temper expectations with favorites and limit my high-level exposure to them.

In regular-season play, my personal limit on betting on a favorite in the NBA is probably around -175. It just really depends who it is, who they’re facing, where they’re at in the schedule, and where they’re playing.

In preseason, I’d cut the favorite’s price down to -150 or lower, and honestly, anything over -125 just doesn’t pop off the board to me.

I want actual value, and as much as I can get it, I want +100 or far better, provided I can really talk myself into it.

I’m NOT just blindly rolling with the Warriors, Rockets, Celtics, and the like during the preseason.

As I’ve mentioned, their top guys can sit out or be limited, so why bet hard on them when I’m not getting them at their very best?

Instead, try to look for reasons to take chances on underdogs.

Don’t build a faulty case just to chase upside, but if you can state your case for an upset pick, and you feel good about it, it’s usually going to be worth a look.

Live NBA Betting

Beyond preparing like crazy for a betting genre that has no mercy on your sports-loving soul, one other way to maximize NBA preseason wagering is to simply wait to bet until after the game actually starts.

Living betting in sports is incredibly underrated and arguably not taken advantage of quite enough. It’s crazy, because the top sports betting sites are adjusting odds on the fly, based largely on how the game is playing out right now.

In a sport like basketball – one full of runs, comebacks, and injuries – live betting allows plenty of opportunities to maximize the benefits from your knowledge and betting style.

The NBA preseason is especially suitable for exploiting the advantages that live betting offers.

Maybe you know that a certain star player won’t be playing in the second half. His team might be up 20, but suddenly the opposition to win (at +250) or to beat a +15 point spread (at +115) looks pretty attractive.

What the edge you have ends up being can fluctuate, and so can how you use it and/or bet with it. But there are so many different variables that go into preseason contests that you can exploit pricing on the fly if you play it just right.

Limit Exposure

Lastly, you should really only bet on NBA preseason games when you feel good about a bet.

Even if you’re confident, all the research checks out, and the odds are impossible to pass up, you still might lose. However, you’ll at least know you went about it logically and liked your wager beforehand.

Don’t just bet for the sake of risking some cash. That’s sports betting advice you can take across all genres, but I’d emphasize it greatly for preseason wagering.

I would suggest limiting your exposure in general, and if you aren’t in love with pricing, just take the night off. Forcing bets of any kind is a bad idea, so make sure the odds call to you and you like the wager before putting your money down.

Summary

Ultimately, betting on preseason NBA action is actually pretty simple.

You want to make sure you have even more information than usual, try your best to verify that information, and maximize your value.

That’s really not far off from how you should approach any sports betting genre on a regular basis. However, preseason contests are so tough to predict that not doing your due diligence is just setting yourself up for failure.

One last thing to consider is that every single day of NBA preseason betting is different than the last. The more you’re dealing with unproven players and guys that don’t spend a ton of time playing with each other, the less reliable the overall product is bound to be.

This is why I’d certainly limit my bankroll exposure to this betting genre – especially if you’re new to it.

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Tuesday, September 25, 2018

6 Quarterbacks the 49ers Can Get to Help Them Win in 2018

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6 Quarterbacks the 49ers Can Get to Help Them Win in 2018

The San Francisco 49ers were one of the sneakiest Super Bowl 53 sleepers you could find going into the 2018 NFL season. Kyle Shanahan had pieced together a solid offensive system, and freshly paid franchise quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo appeared to be the man to run it.

Things didn’t go quite as planned through a 1-2 start over the first three weeks, but the Niners didn’t have an easy schedule. There was still plenty of optimism that they could regroup and make some heads roll over the course of the remainder of the season.

Perhaps they would have, but things just got a lot more difficult.

Jimmy G went down with a knee injury in week three, one that was revealed on Monday to be of the season-ending variety. Without their top quarterback, the Niners seem to be headed back to square one and may have no choice but to roll with top backup C.J. Beathard.

That sounds all of the horrible, so perhaps the Niners will get a little ambitious and try to figure something else out. Here are six somewhat realistic options they could consider.

Sign Colin Kaepernick

Yeah, the Nike guy who sits/kneels during the national anthem. He’s got a case against the league and a big social platform he’s taking advantage of, but it’s possible he wouldn’t mind rescuing his old team.

I doubt the Niners want to deal with that circus again, but it’s hard to argue that Kap doesn’t give them a better chance than C.J. Beathard.

Another interesting element is the fact that San Francisco is on nationally televised games four times before the end of the year.

49ers have four prime-time games from Week Six through Week 10. Short of a trade for Tom Brady, there's only one guy who can salvage the national TV ratings. pic.twitter.com/pfFV4bFwQF

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) September 24, 2018

To make all of this even more interesting, NFL betting sites like SportsBetting.ag are offering a Colin Kaepernick prop bet that specifically asks if he’ll latch back on with the 49ers in 2018.

Yes+400
No-700

My guess would be that isn’t happening, but this is the NFL we’re talking about. Crazy things happen all the time, and there’s no denying Kaepernick offers dual-threat ability and is one of the better options out there.

From a talent perspective, bringing Kap back for one year until Jimmy G gets healthy makes some sense. He’s not a long-term threat, this ends his collusion issue with the NFL, and the Niners might be able to stay competitive.

I don’t think Kaepernick gets them to the Super Bowl (probably not even the playoffs), but if he did either, it’d be one heck of a story.

Sign Jay Cutler

I’m not sure this is a step up from Kaepernick, especially based on his erratic play with the Bears and Dolphins over the past couple of seasons. That being said, the 35-year-old Cutler has always had a big arm and nice mobility, and there’s still a chance he could thrive in a good system.

That’s certainly something the Niners have going for them, while Cutler would have a deep threat in Marquise Goodwin, a solid possession option in Pierre Garcon, and a rising tight end in George Kittle to work with.

I won’t lie and say Cutler was good in Miami in 2017 or that he’s not close to being done for good.

However, everyone loves a reclamation project, and it sure would be a fun ending to his NFL career if he could swoop in and (try to) play the hero for an injured starter for the second year in a row.

Sign Tony Romo

Of the retired/free agent breed, the only quarterback I’d really want is Romo.

I know he’s loving life as a CBS analyst these days (and he’s quite good at it), but Romo is still just 38 years old and could probably come in and pick up Shanny’s offense pretty quickly.

Romo has been fairly emphatic about being satisfied in retirement. He’s got a new job that he loves and still keeps him close to football, so if he ever did go back to the gridiron, it’d probably have to be a truly special opportunity.

The scenarios where Romo might actually think twice likely include a return to Big D and latching on with a legit title contender.

I don’t feel like the 49ers really offer Romo what he’d want at this point, but if he did feel they could compete for a championship in 2018, perhaps he’d hear them out.

I’m not here to make a call for Romo, though. All I know is that I think he can still play and that if he wanted to try, he could keep the Niners in contention. Heck, maybe the Niners even get extra ambitious and bring in Dez Bryant, too.

Trade for Josh McCown

The 49ers were recently spotted bringing in Tom Savage for a visit, so you know they’re pretty desperate. That’s a sign that they’re rolling with C.J. Beathard for now, but it also suggests they’re at least going to look outside their own franchise for some extra help.

I think the best way for them to get better under center will be via trade, and it’s likely going to be for a veteran passer if it happens.

McCown stands out, as he’s really done his job in New York to this point. Sam Darnold is the face of the Jets now, and while McCown could continue helping him mature on the fly, he’s realistically wasting the final year(s) of his career.

In San Francisco, McCown would get one last chance to take a team to the playoffs and perhaps deliver that storybook ending on a very odd career.

McCown is made of glass and hasn’t really ever enjoyed high-level success, but he’s a smart player who knows how to move the ball.

If Shanahan wants a one-year stop-gap that can keep the fort in place until Jimmy G returns, McCown is a solid try.

Trade for Nick Foles

Foles would be a better option than McCown. He knows how to take advantage of defenses deep down the field, he can manage games, and he’s coming off one of the better Super Bowl performances in NFL history.

Much like McCown, he’s really not needed where he currently is.

Carson Wentz finally made his long-awaited return from a knee injury in week three, and barring another injury, he shouldn’t be giving the ball back to Foles anytime soon.

Foles has had his ups and downs in the league, but he’s still a guy that can win from within the pocket and in the right system can help you make a playoff run.

A clear upgrade over what the Niners presently have, Foles would allow this offense to stretch defenses out and hopefully open things up for Matt Breida and company on the ground.

Trade for Ryan Fitzpatrick

Few names are hotter than Ryan Fitzpatrick’s right now. Not only was he on an insane tear through the first two weeks of the season, but he wilted in the face of pressure on Monday Night Football in week three.

There are always two extremes with the man known as Fitzmagic, but he obviously has a lot of upside when he’s allowed to let it rip and take shots down the field.

As good as Fitzpatrick has been in 2018, he’s not the long-term solution for the Buccaneers, and in a matter of hours, many are quickly starting to speculate that Jameis Winston could get his job back when he returns from a three-game suspension next week.

If that’s to be true, Fitzpatrick will soon be relegated to backup duties again, and he’ll be wasting away on the bench. Needless to say, anyone in need of viable quarterback play could then lobby for a trade with Tampa Bay.

If the Bucs are sold on looking ahead with Winston, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to dump the aging Fitzpatrick for assets and allow Winston to play out the 2018 season without a fan favorite breathing down his neck.

What Will the 49ers Do at Quarterback?

Personally, I really like three options: bringing in Kap, luring Romo out of retirement, and trading for Fitzpatrick. They’re all a lot of fun, and these guys all have unique styles that – in different ways – could help the 49ers make a playoff run this year.

They also wouldn’t be direct threats to Jimmy G’s future with the team, so there’s no real risk in bringing them in for moderate compensation, whether it be as a free agent or via trade.

Shanahan has already pretty much shot down the Kap talk, however, while I don’t think Romo is coming back to play again.

The only viable route is Fitzpatrick, but it’s still possible Tampa Bay just rides the wave out and sees if he can lead them to greatness yet. That, or they just keep him in town in case Winston does something else even dumber than the last thing (I’m not sure that’s possible, though).

Niners fans won’t want to hear it, but ultimately, I bet San Francisco does nothing.

They lost their top quarterback, and that’s a big bummer. Not only was he pretty darn good, but he cost a pretty penny to secure this past offseason. San Francisco committed to him for more than just 2018 or 2019, however, so they will think big picture and try not to overreact too much here.

Even if they did, there’s still the reality that bringing someone else in to try to pick up an offense they don’t know simply is not an easy task. That, plus chemistry can be a concern, and there’s never any guarantee it will work out as planned.

San Francisco’s best course of action is to get C.J. Beathard ready to play for week four and hope he progresses enough throughout the year to keep them in the playoff mix.

From what I’ve seen of Beathard, I don’t envision him leading the 49ers to postseason play. He’s got a good arm and can make plays down the field, but he’s inexperienced and has struggled with turnovers in the past.

The 49ers were a sneaky Super Bowl sleeper, and now they’re not. In a division run by the undefeated Los Angeles Rams, I wouldn’t be chasing the Niners as a threat for the NFC West anytime soon, either.

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FanDuel Sportsbook Gaffe Provides Lessons For NJ Sports Betting As A Whole

FanDuel Sportsbook Gaffe Provides Lessons For NJ Sports Betting As A Whole
lessons

At the end of the day, FanDuel Sportsbook may have given the fledgling NJ sports betting market a chance to learn and improve the system.

The post FanDuel Sportsbook Gaffe Provides Lessons For NJ Sports Betting As A Whole appeared first on .

Monday, September 24, 2018

FanDuel Sportsbook Changes Its Tune, Pays Out ‘Erroneous’ NFL Tickets

FanDuel Sportsbook Changes Its Tune, Pays Out ‘Erroneous’ NFL Tickets
FanDuel Sportsbook glitch

After much bad publicity, FanDuel Sportsbook announced last week they'd pay out the prop bets made on glitch odds during an NFL game.

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Looking at the Early Betting Lines for Week 4 of the 2018 NFL Season

GamblingSites.com
Looking at the Early Betting Lines for Week 4 of the 2018 NFL Season

The NFL is a crazy place to try to consistently win money when it comes to sports betting. Week three in particular was absolutely nuts.

If you were looking for one blinding example, look no further than the Buffalo Bills marching into Minnesota and laying waste to the Minnesota Vikings.

That 100% takes the cake for week three NFL bets that went completely backwards.

As bad as that was, it wasn’t the only finish to drop the collective jaws of NFL fans around the world.

Green Bay didn’t look good in DC, the Jaguars couldn’t top the Titans at home, the Houston Texans slid to 0-3 against the hapless Giants, and the Saints and Falcons combined for an unsightly 80 points.

Okay, that last one everyone should have seen coming.

I took an early look at the week three betting lines last Sunday, and before Monday Night Football even arrived, had my post out to help bettors make their picks for the week.

Going into week three, I held a respectable 18-12-2 record, going 9-6-1 in each week to start the 2018 NFL betting season. Week three delivered some hiccups, to be sure, but considering some of the insanity that went down, I’ll take a 6-9 record (again, not counting the MNF game yet).

That isn’t to say I’m happy finishing below .500. However, I had some solid moments – specifically calling Cleveland’s first win in almost two full years.

Obviously, last week wasn’t my finest hour, but hopefully, week four will be a little more hospitable to your betting endeavors. Let’s dive into the early week four NFL betting lines over at SportsBetting.ag and see how you may want to wager.

All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from SportsBetting.ag on 9/23/2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.
Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) Total: 49

Boy, did the Vikings get embarrassed in week three. Not only did they lose to the lowly Bills, but they did so at home and got absolutely housed.

I can’t believe I backed Minnesota to cover an insane -17 point spread. Now they have to go into LA and take on a Rams squad that has put up 30+ points in three straight contests to open the year.

Maybe they do it again, but I tend to think the Vikings overlooked the Bills, thinking they could coast by them and instead looked ahead to this game.

The Rams are the better team on paper and should win, but both teams will be on a short week. Don’t be shocked if we get a good game and Minny beats this +6.5 point spread.

Dalvin Cook should be back for this one, and Minnesota is better defensively than what they showed on Sunday.

PICKMinnesota Vikings (6.5)-117
Miami Dolphins (+7.5) @ New England Patriots (-7.5) Total: N/A

Talk about two teams that you thought would be different going into week four. Miami has somehow stayed perfect, while the Pats have looked nothing like a title contender as they’ve limped through a 1-2 start.

It’s been bad, but Josh Gordon makes his debut this week, and New England returns home after a forgettable two-game road trip.

Tom Brady is more comfortable in this setting, and he gets a new toy to test out down the field. Miami, meanwhile, could still be a fraud with hollow wins over the Titans, Raiders, and Jets.

I’ll roll with an angry Pats team to win easily on their home field.

PICKNew England Patriots (-7.5)-120
Houston Texans (+2) @ Indianapolis Colts (-2) Total: 47.5

The Texans are in a really bad spot, as they’re off to an ugly 0-3 start and can’t seem to stop anyone defensively. Now they have to head into Indy to face a very competitive Colts team that is 1-2 but has been in every game thus far.

It’s really hard to send the Texans to a hopeless 0-4 start, but they clearly aren’t as good as everyone thought they’d be. Cue the Bill O’Brien firing talk.

PICKIndianapolis Colts ATS (-2)-110
Cincinnati Bengals (+5) @ Atlanta Falcons (-5) Total: N/A

The Bengals gave a valiant effort but dropped to 2-1 with a tough road loss in Carolina, while the same can be said with the Falcons losing a crazy OT shootout at home against the Saints.

These are two solid teams, but the Falcons will be more desperate and on their home field. They’re also more talented, so I have no qualms about backing them in week four.

Unfortunately, this is a very tricky spread, so I’ll just take ATL as a straight-up winner.

PICKAtlanta Falcons to Win (N/A)
Buffalo Bills (+10.5) @ Green Bay Packers (-10.5) Total: 44.4

The Bills defied all logic with a huge road upset win over the Vikings last week, so it’s impossible to ignore them here. Green Bay, on the other hand, could very easily be 0-3 right now.

The Packers are tough to beat at Lambeau Field in theory, but the reality thus far is that they’re simply not very good. They’re certainly not dominant, which is what they’d have to be to take them at -10.5.

Back the Bills to keep this one interesting.

PICKBuffalo Bills (+10.5)-115
Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) Total: N/A

The Lions shocked everyone with a big 26-10 win over the Pats on Sunday Night Football, and in week four, they’ll try to keep the good times rolling in Big D.

Dallas tends to be the best version of themselves at their home stadium, while the ‘Boys need to step it up to avoid a 1-3 hole.

The spread doesn’t really excite me, so I’ll just back the Cowboys on their home turf. After struggling last week on the road, I’m expecting a dominant effort out of Ezekiel Elliott as Dallas controls this one.

PICKDallas Cowboys to Win(N/A)
New York Jets (+8.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) Total: 38

The Jets shocked everyone with a huge 48-17 win over the Lions in week one. Over the past two weeks, however, they’ve looked a lot like the team we all thought they’d be.

Sam Darnold will be good at some point, but trusting him on the road against the Jaguars isn’t something I want to do. This spread is probably asking for trouble, but after getting ousted by Tennessee at home last week, Jacksonville should get amped up to defend their turf in week four.

A healthy return for Leonard Fournette would make the Jags the obvious choice here, so betting on Jacksonville early in the week may be the best way to maximize this NFL betting opportunity.

PICKJacksonville Jaguars ATS (-8.5)-112
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Chicago Bears (-2.5) Total: N/A

I don’t know how the Bucs did on MNF in week three, but I do know that the Bears are legit defensively and will be at home. They also have a capable offense that won’t exactly be facing an elite defense.

No matter what Ryan Fitzpatrick does to the Steelers, I’m digging Chicago to nab this one and sit atop the NFC North at 3-1.

PICKChicago Bears (-2.5)-105
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Tennessee Titans (+3) Total: N/A

Carson Wentz’s return fueled a clutch home win for the Eagles in week three, and now he’ll lead Philly into Tennessee. There, the Eagles will clash with Mike Vrabel and a Titans team that somehow keeps winning with Blaine Gabbert running the show.

Tennessee deserves props for their unlikely 2-1 start, but I can’t buy them in this matchup – or in general. Philly has been very up and down to start the year, but this feels like a game they should take easily.

PICKPhiladelphia Eagles (-3)-120
Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (+3) Total: 37.5

Arizona has been horrible en route to an 0-3 start, as they’ve given the suddenly inept Sam Bradford too long of a leash and have misused stud rusher David Johnson.

Maybe that all changes with rookie quarterback Josh Rosen (probably) taking over under center in week four, but even at home, he’s got a tall order in dispatching a slightly underrated Seahawks team.

I still trust Russell Wilson way more than Arizona at the moment. The spread might come back to haunt me, so I’ll just take the Seahawks as the victor.

PICKSeattle Seahawks to Win(N/A)
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) @ Oakland Raiders (-2.5) Total: 45

The Baker Mayfield era is officially here, and the former Sooner will get his first start in Oakland against the 0-3 Raiders. He’s already helped the Browns to their first win in almost two calendar years, so everything he does now is pretty much gravy.

Joking aside, Mayfield has a stiffer test than you’d think, seeing as the winless Raiders have actually been pretty competitive. Jon Gruden’s return to the NFL has been spoiled each week, but eventually, he’s going to get a win.

At home in a showdown with the Browns is probably as good a chance as Chucky will get.

PICKOakland Raiders to Win(N/A)
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) @ New York Giants (+3.5) Total: 50

Drew Brees has been enfuego to start the year, and now he’ll lead his Saints into New York to battle the G-Men. The Giants did just score a big win over the Texans to keep their season alive, but overall, they have not looked very good in 2018.

The Saints historically have difficulty on the road, but the Giants are overmatched here. This is a tricky spread, however, so I’ll just roll with Brees and company to find a way to get the win.

PICKNew Orleans Saints to Win(N/A)
Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) Total: N/A

Much like the Buccaneers, I don’t yet know where the Steelers are at mentally, as I’m pushing this post through before the MNF game is over. Pittsburgh is back home at Heinz Field against a familiar foe in week four, however, so I have to think they’ll be up for this one.

Pittsburgh remains stacked offensively, while the Ravens have proven to be very erratic on both ends of the field. Joe Flacco has been better than expected this year, but it’s oddly enough Baltimore’s defense I find hard to trust.

Spreads go out the window in AFC North clashes (usually), so I’ll just take the Steelers as a straight-up winner in a game they probably need to have.

PICKPittsburgh Steelers to Win(N/A)
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Chargers

Early signs indicate that starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will miss the remainder of the 2018 NFL season with a torn ACL. Even if he doesn’t, he’s almost certainly out for week four, and the Niners are going to be big underdogs.

The Chargers have gotten off to another one of their vintage slow starts, but they remain extremely talented. At home in a must-win situation against an inferior opponent, take the Bolts as the straight-up winner the second the lines are released.

PICKLos Angeles Chargers to Win(N/A)
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) @ Denver Broncos (+4) Total: 55

The last game on the week four NFL betting docket could be a good one, as the undefeated Chiefs travel to Colorado to battle the hated Broncos.

Denver (2-1) slipped up in a tough one against the Ravens last week, but fundamentally, theyhaveall of the necessary pieces to give KC problems.

It’s been a breeze thus far for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but at some point, he’s going to struggle.

Denver is easily Kansas City’s toughest defensive draw to this point in 2018, and they have the offensive balance to potentially control this game.

I wish the spread was a bit fatter, but I’ll take the Broncos to keep this one close.

PICKDenver Broncos (+4)-115
Summary

Overall, week four is bound to be very interesting in the NFL. Week three was all over the place, and as we move forward, I still think several teams are going to be exposed.

In addition, some teams will be getting pretty desperate to get that first win or avoid a huge hole, so you need to consider shifting your betting biases to match a constantly evolving picture.

I do think the top teams are slowly showing themselves, but it’s too early to just ride teams every single week, while factoring in dicey spreads is always key.

Hopefully, this early look at week four NFL lines helps you figure out your bets – especially if you roll with my week four NFL picks!

The post Looking at the Early Betting Lines for Week 4 of the 2018 NFL Season appeared first on GamblingSites.com.

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