The 2018 NFL season is just around the corner, while the final week of the preseason arrives on August 30th. It’s not quite here yet, but with that first week of NFL regular-season action comes a huge swoon in the sports betting world.
I touched on it last week, and in short order, meaningful NBA and NHL contests will be here as well.
It’s pretty much the best point in the sports year, and it’s certainly a thrill for sports betting enthusiasts. The good news is that I’m nailing upset picks even while dabbling in the less appealing genres, so when the good stuff gets here, it should be even better.
I marched into last week with a 30-46-1 record. That doesn’t sound impressive at first glance, but that’s 30 upset picks. It isn’t ever easy to nail an upset pick, and as I’ve mentioned, I’m getting you value at a pretty difficult time of year.
Hopefully it’s helped you hit a few big winners and cash more often than not. I’d also like to point out that there is risk anytime you bet on a big underdog, so always consider angling the point spread as a hedge (or replacement) if you’re not in total agreement with me.
In fact, due to lines being slow to come out last week, I took two dog lines, and it worked out swimmingly. Let’s take a look at last week before digging in deep for some more underdog picks.
It was a really nice week overall, as I went 3-1 for the second week in a row. I tried my hand at WNBA, MLB, CFL, and NFL preseason picks.
I like to offer some versatility whenever possible, but I don’t love to force picks I don’t see value in and/or actually believe in.
The only blemish was Minnesota getting housed by LA. That was a tough loss, but as you can see, the rest of the week worked out nicely.
Minnesota Lynx over Los Angeles Sparks+245
St. Louis Cardinals over Los Angeles Dodgers+154 
Edmonton Eskimos over Hamilton Tiger-Cats+3
New Orleans Saints over Los Angeles Chargers+2.5
The Cards felt like an elite betting value on Tuesday night, and they stayed hot with a win at Dodger Stadium. The +154 price was pretty nice, and it’s certainly never a bad thing to hit a good baseball underdog like that.
My CFL picks have been hit or miss this year, but I’m glad the lines were slow to materialize. I rolled with the Eskimos as +3 underdogs based on the point spread, and they ended up losing by just one point to the Tiger-Cats.
I would have been game for them straight up, but hopefully you just played the points and got the win.
The same goes for the Saints, but they actually destroyed the Chargers on Saturday. You would have been a winner if you rolled with their moneyline, but backing them as a +2 underdog against the spread also worked out.
Overall, it was a terrific week, and my sports upset picks record jumps to 33-47-1 on the year. I’m inching closer and closer to .500, which for underdog picks isn’t just difficult but also rather profitable.
Let’s try to keep the good times rolling this week with a handful of my favorite upset plays.
College football is back! It’s actually been here for a week now, and I know there are more high-profile games to target, but I just like the value associated with this Big 10 clash.
Northwestern is coming off of a fantastic 10-3 season in 2017, while they’ve secured bowl game wins in each of the last two years. The program has been trending very much in the right direction under Pat Fitzgerald, while they’ve specifically been owning the Boilermakers (four wins in a row) in the recent past.
The top college football betting sites clearly expect that trend to be bucked, as Purdue is favored to win at home.
On paper, the Wildcats still project as the better team, and they might be in Purdue’s head. When you factor in that anything goes in these conference rivalries, Northwestern as a +130 underdog feels like a huge steal.
Week four of the 2018 NFL preseason concludes on Thursday night, which gives you one more chance to risk some cash on games that don’t mean a thing.
Joking aside, you can still take a crack at some elite value with a team like the Redskins, who are inexplicably huge underdogs as they take on the Ravens.
I’ll admit the Ravens have the quarterback edge here, but there’s not much in it other than that. Although I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing the Redskins as straight-up underdog winners, I’m expecting this to be a close game.
That’s why I’ll take them to beat this gaudy +6.5 point spread, where SportsBetting.ag hands out a sweet +101 price. Provided the Redskins can get within a touchdown, you win.
Normally I wouldn’t dare bet against the Astros, but there is a lot working against them on Tuesday night. For one, they really haven’t been that dominant at home (33-29), while projected starter Charlie Morton’s form hasn’t been overly scary.
In come the A’s, who got to Gerrit Cole of all people early on during Monday’s showdown and entered this series scorching hot. Oakland is equipped to overtake the AL West, and by the time this series is over, it’s possible they will have done just that.
Backing Edwin Jackson on the road against the Astros really isn’t what I’m doing here.
More than anything, I’m rolling with Oakland’s dangerous bats in a tense rivalry clash. That, and a team playing as well as the A’s offering a +173 price is just too good to pass up.
The actual line for the Blue Bombers as a straight-up underdog isn’t out yet, but whatever it is, I’m down for it. It won’t be an amazing price, but they’re mild +3 underdogs, and it’ll be enough to catch my interest.
Their Bombers’ offense remains arguably the most explosive unit in the CFL, and if their defense can just get it together, they should be able to snag a win.
Winnipeg has dropped two in a row and is just 2-3 on the road, but I think their defense has a good shot at taming the Roughriders in this one.
I could toss a slew of MLB or NFL preseason picks at you, but I’m really just trying to hunt down the very best underdog picks for the week.
Quality over quantity is always the way to go, especially when you’re putting down money on teams Vegas is projecting the public to bet against.
Of course, as we’ve learned (and Vegas knows), it’s not always about public perception. If we can keep trying to go against conventional wisdom and gauge when it’s appropriate to exploit it, it can be highly profitable.
I’ve been surging in recent weeks and hopefully can add to the hot run with another solid showing this week. Whether you jump on all of my upset picks or are selective, I wish you luck. Enjoy the games!
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