Sunday, September 30, 2018

Gwent as an Esport – Will Gwent: Homecoming Destroy Hearthstone?

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Gwent as an Esport – Will Gwent: Homecoming Destroy Hearthstone?

I’m a frequent gamer, and growing up, I was passionate about battling my friends in Pokémon TCG, Pog, and Mortal Kombat tournaments. As I got older, I really found my niche in RPG games.

I was gifted a copy of The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt and sank hundreds of hours into the game, including the in-game version of Gwent. I kept getting destroyed and did a Google search to get some tips to improve my strategy, and that was when I came across the official free-standing version of the game and immediately became a huge fan.

For those of you new to the game, Gwent: The Witcher Card Game has existed as a free-to-play public beta version since 2017, published by CD Projekt Red, and is scheduled to be officially released sometime in October 2018 as Gwent: Homecoming.

Throughout the beta launch, CD Projekt Red has generously revealed details and has taken player feedback all throughout the development process.

This has helped to build the game into a real esports hotspot, with several tournaments and qualifiers with prize pools that offered up to $250,000 and an estimated 200,000 players playing the game regularly.

The big question now is whether Gwent: Homecoming will bulk up the game into a real heavyweight champ against the likes of established contenders like Hearthstone, Overwatch, and Dota 2.

What We Know About Gwent: Homecoming

CD Projekt Red is an incredibly indulgent game developer and has replied regularly to players on Reddit to provide more details about what the full version of the game will be like, including modifications to game mechanics, deck building, and interface/design.

We already knew quite a bit and that some major components of the game were going to get a shake-up with Homecoming prior to a video reveal released earlier this month.

With the video release, we can see that some of the in-game mechanics have changed (different rules for the pre-match mulligan, for instance).The actual card playing field has undergone some hefty alterations, with animations and fraction leaders added and card preview sections removed.

It is clear that CD Projekt Red has been busy with a major overhaul of the existing features of Gwent and has really breathed new life into the game.

It looks very much like Gwent will be a step above other existing games like Hearthstone and will become a more blended RPG/card game.

The developer has done an outstanding job of making the card game into a more immersive world as compared to a vanilla, run-of-the-mill card game where your interaction with the characters, environment, and lore of the game is limited.

The preview we got makes it clear we’re going to be looking at a new major contender in the esports arena.

What Might Be Missing?

There are some features missing that players had been hoping for, such as card trading/bartering systems with other players, the retention of the third playable row, and new soundtracks/background themes.

Out of the three features that are probably not going to be included, the biggest hit to the game’s potential is the limited ability to trade cards with other players.

Currently the beta version only allows cards to be purchased in-game by earning ore to open card kegs (4 cards given, 3 additional cards offered to select from, for a total of 5 cards per keg) or by purchasing card kegs using real money.

It would be a welcome change to see the game allow card trading like PUBG and CS:GO skins trading, where players could bet and swap rare or uncommon cards between each other in a separate marketplace.

This could really stand to increase the competitive aspects of the game and could allow players to have a definite edge if they knew of a strategy or tactic utilizing a card they didn’t own and could sell existing cards in order to quickly get the card they needed.

Opening dozens of kegs or inefficiently milling lots of existing cards they had for scrap in order to build the rare card from scratch is far from ideal.

What Might Be Coming?

If you’ve played any games developed by CD Projekt Red, you will probably have seen all the language options for international players, and the same is true for Gwent as well.

By day, I am a localization manager and am always in awe of how this producer goes above and beyond to serve players around the world by subtitling and dubbing their games extensively.

Currently, Korean and Scandinavian players are underserved, even though their player base is huge. We might be able to look forward to the inclusion of additional languages with the roll-out of Homecoming.

Korean, including full dubbing, was originally planned to be released in May 2018, but as of now, it has still not been released, so it is likely the studio will release this with Homecoming.

Thronebreaker is another missing piece of the Gwent puzzle.

There have been several announcements surrounding Thronebreaker, which is rumored to be a stand-alone 30-hour RPG based on Gwent mechanics and has been delayed to allow for expanded development. It has been beefed up to allow for expanded gameplay and possible tie-ins with Homecoming, such as a rumored ability to play through Thronebreaker and new/exclusive cards to your Homecoming deck.

It also is likely that Thronebreaker will launch in tandem with Homecoming. The one positive here is that the developer said there may be an extra offering given to these players because of their wait (possibly extra card kegs?), so you might stand to start off a leg ahead in the race if you wait for the version on your console to launch.

It is also rumored that while Homecoming may be free to play, Thronebreaker will not be free.It has been rumored that the cost will be less than the Witcher 3, though.

CD Projekt Red has said that in the next few weeks, there will be more announcements as the game development is finalized, so a concrete number for pricing will likely be announced in the next few weeks.

So, this all sounds great, right? The one big missing piece of the puzzle is the exact launch date of Homecoming and Thronebreaker, as the release for both had previously been delayed over six months to October 2018.

CD Projekt Red officially announced a release date for Thronebreaker and Homecoming and stated the release date for both on PC would be in late October; unfortunately for PS4 and Xbox One players, the release for these consoles will be delayed until December 4th.

As It Stands

Judging by all the improvements made since the launch of the public beta version, it would be safe to assume that the number of players stands to skyrocket with the inclusion of expanded playable features, improvements in the UI and graphics, and expansion of available cards/decks.

Currently, the game feels a little limited, and you can easily predict certain card combinations from your opponent as soon as you can see their leader cards at the start of the battle since the scale of the beta of it isn’t huge.

More players and an improved/expanded official release of the game could absolutely launch Gwent into a whole new category as an esports superpower and lead to bigger prize pots, as well as more playoffs and tournaments.

You can also utilize your existing knowledge of the game to have a head start against other players, as based on the previews released by CD Projekt Red, many cards will remain in Homecoming.

If you are a PS4 or Xbox One player, you could also download the PC version of the game first and get early access – it may be difficult or impossible to port your cards/account information over from the PC version to your console, however.

Although the in-game trading functions are limited and likely will be with the Homecoming and Thronebreaker releases, there are still some other ways to carry your skills over onto the next front and make money.

Sites such as Ultraplay are now offering Gwent as an opportunity for esports betting, and as the game is developed, we can be certain it will grow to have the same payoff potential as games such as Dota 2 and Overwatch.

With the huge changes in UI, game mechanics, and the expansive parallel RPG game launched in tandem with tie-ins to Gwent: Homecoming, Gwent, already a major Hearthstone competitor, will absolutely rise to become the next big name in online card-playing games.

We are at a point in game development where the graphics and complexities needed to support blended RPG card-playing games are there, and CD Projekt Red has perfected what they do best to give us a fully immersive card-playing game with elements of both traditional RPGs as well as live card tournaments against players from around the world.

To date, no other card-playing game has been able to even come close to the depth of gameplay that the full release of Gwent will offer. It is certain that Gwent: Homecoming will rise to become the next major hit in the card-playing world.

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Starting Hands in Limit Texas Hold’em

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Starting Hands in Limit Texas Hold’em

The starting point for any effective poker strategy, limit or no-limit, Texas hold’em or any other game, is starting hand selection. All poker games start with an initial hand. After that, you have later rounds of play, but the first (and possibly most important) decision you must make is whether to play the hand at all.

This post focuses on starting hands in limit Texas hold’em. These are guidelines and a way of thinking about these hands. They’re not iron-clad rules, and you’ll find other advice that’s equally as good as the suggestions in this post.

I’ve categorized the hands by type, but first, a word about position—which my friend Wes claims is the weakest part of my game.

The Importance of Position on Your Starting Hand Requirements

In Texas hold’em, you need stronger hands from early position than from late position.

What does that mean?

Position refers to when you get to play your hand. If you’re in “early” position, you play your hand before most of the other players at the table. If you’re in “late” position, you play your hand after most of the other players at the table.

Why would that matter?

When you’re playing Texas hold’em, you’re deciding among the following options.

Betting Calling Checking Folding Raising

If you’ve seen what most of the other players are doing with their hands before deciding what to do, you have more information with which to decide. For example, if you have a pair of 7s, and 3 players before you have bet, raised, and re-raised, you can be confident that at least one of them—maybe more—have a higher pair than you do. You should fold.

On the other hand, if everyone has called, and you’re the last one to act, you can call, too. After all, you have a chance at hitting another 7 on the flop, turn, or river. If you do, there’s lots of money in the pot to be won because of all the players. You will lose with this hand most of the time, but when you do win, you’ll get paid off enough money to make it worthwhile.

For purposes of this post, I’ll only look at whether you’re in early position or late position. Poker writers often also look at middle position, but I think that distinction is unnecessary in low-limit games and with beginners. Since these are just guidelines or “training wheels” anyway, it won’t make much difference. You’ll deviate from these suggestions just because that’s what you’re supposed to do anyway.

Pocket Pairs

You have 169 possible starting hands in Texas hold’em. 13 of those possible hands are pocket pairs, so I’ll start the discussion with those hands. That’s about 7.8% of all your possible hands.

The rank of the cards in your pocket pair is the most distinguishing characteristic to think about. For purposes of discussing them here, I’ve organized them into huge, big, medium, and small pairs.

Huge Pocket Pairs (Aces and Kings)

A pair of aces is the best starting hand in Texas hold’em, regardless of position or limits. In fact, these hands are so powerful that they more or less play themselves preflop. All you need to do is bet and raise with them.

I read Super/System years ago, and I remember that Doyle Brunson wrote a section about no-limit hold’em where he suggested limping with pocket aces if you’re in first position. The goal was to get someone to raise behind you so that you could put them all in.

Since this post is aimed at limit hold’em players, I’ll suggest that this advice doesn’t apply in limit games. My buddy Wes insists that it’s bad advice in no-limit, too—he says you should always raise with pocket aces or pocket kings.

These starting hands are so good that they can often win at a showdown even if the hand doesn’t improve over the next few rounds of play.

Some people think that you’re in big trouble if you wind up in a pot with a lot of other players when you have one of these hands. That’s not exactly true. With more players, you’ll win less often.

But you’ll also have more money in the pot, so you’ll get paid off when you win. Pocket aces and pocket kings will both win more pots on average than most other starting hands, even if there are so many players in the pot that they won’t win 51% of the time.

Big Pocket Pairs (Queens, Jacks, and 10s)

These are great starting hands, too, but not as great as aces or kings. They can still win even if the hand doesn’t improve in the later rounds, but they’re not as likely to do so. Some players get scared when an ace or a king shows up on the flop.

Giving up in the later rounds with one of these big pairs just because an overcard shows up is a common mistake among players who are too tight.

Sometimes it’s right to fold when that overcard hits, but it also depends on how your opponent plays.

You won’t play these pairs as aggressively as kings or aces, but you should almost always raise with them from any position if no one else has raised. In fact, even if you face one raiser in front of you, you should probably re-raise with any of these hands. You should only slow down in the face of multiple raises and re-raises. (Those aces and kings are out there somewhere.)

Even then, it’s probably right to call with this hand, because if it improves, it’s hard to beat.

Medium Pairs (9s, 8s, and 7s)

The best situation with a medium pair is to get into a pot with multiple (5+) opponents. You’re hoping to hit a set and win a big pot in that situation. When you have that many opponents in such a pot, someone is going to have a pocket pair besides you. If you’ve hit your set on the flop, that other player is often going to be betting and raising even though she’s behind.

This often runs the other players out of the pot, which is fine, because now you have dead money in the pot. Even if they stick around, though,the size of your payoff when you win warrants the risk.

But a pair of 7s, 8s, or 9s can also win unimproved if you’re playing with a small number of passive, loose players.

If you’re in early position with one of these pairs, limp If you’re in later position with multiple limpers, limp If you’re in later position against one limper, raise If you’re in later position with multiple raisers, fold If you’re in later position against one raiser, call
Small Pairs (Any Pair of 6s or Lower)

With all the pairs I’ve discussed so far, you can sometimes (or even often) win without your hand improving.

If you have a pair of 6s or lower, though, you’ll rarely win unless your hand improves. This means you must play small pairs much more cautiously than the other pairs discussed so far.

You’re hoping for a bunch of other players putting money in the pot so that you’ll get paid off when you hit your set. If you have fewer than 4 players in the pot, these hands are hard to make money with.

You also want to get into hands with these cards cheap. If you’re facing bets and raises, you can’t really justify getting into a pot with such hands. If there are 5 or more players and several of them have called a single raise, it can make sense to play in hopes of getting that set.

But you absolutely must have the discipline to get away from these small pairs on the flop if you don’t improve. Only in the loosest, most passive games will you continue with such a hand on the turn.

In fact, you’ll usually want to fold these hands preflop from early position, but that depends on the nature of the game. In most limit hold’em games, chances are you either won’t have enough players in the pot or someone will raise preflop.

In either of those cases, your small-sized pair is a bummer.

Only if you’re playing in a loose, passive game where almost everyone limps in preflop on almost every hand should you risk limping from early position.

If you have a raise, you can call it, but if you get a raise and a re-raise after that, you should fold before the flop.

Suited Cards

When you’re evaluating other starting hands in Texas hold’em, whether the cards are suited is a big consideration. Some players think that since being suited only improves your chances of winning by 6%, being suited isn’t that big a deal. Such players are wrong.

Being suited is HUGELY important in Texas hold’em.

A 6% increase in your winning percentage is a big deal. Compare that to the kind of edge that card counters in blackjack get excited about. They’re thrilled to put money into action when they have a 1% or 2% better probability of winning.

This doesn’t mean that suited cards are always playable or that they’re monsters. In fact, you can have a lot of fun trolling online poker tables by talking about how your hands shouldn’t lose so often because they’re suited. That can be a lot of fun.

Suited cards, like pairs, also change in value based on the ranking of the cards in your hand. I’ll discuss them from biggest to smallest.

Big Suited Cards

For a hand to fall into this category, the high card must be either an ace or a king. Any other hand wouldn’t qualify as a “big suited” starting hand.

The other card in the hand should be ranked 10 or higher, too. If you’re a blackjack player, you might recognize any of these hands as being great, because they’ll total 20 or 21.

Any suited ace and 10 or higher is a big suited starting hand—that includes A-10, A-J, A-Q, and A-K. Of course, the higher the cards, the better the hand. Ace-king suited is on most starting hand charts right along with pocket queens or kings. Ace-queen suited is also a huge starting hand.

If the higher card is a king, the other card should be a face card—a queen or a jack.

These hands can make top pair with a solid kicker, but they also often hit a big flush or sometimes a straight. You can do well with big suited cards regardless of how many players are in the pot with you.

Like big pocket pairs, these are appropriate hands to raise with from any position. It’s not a mistake to limp from early position with a hand like this, though. This is a strong enough starting hand that you’d like to see some action.

On the other hand, if you’re facing multiple bettors and/or raisers, you need to start thinking more about your hand. Ace-king suited and ace-queen suited are still no-brainers to raise or re-raise with, but the smaller hands get trickier. If you think you can get into a pot with multiple players, call, but avoid getting heads up with these cards if you can.

This is a situation, too, where it pays to have paid attention to your opponents’ tendencies. Some players are loose and aggressive, so it’s okay to play these hands strongly against that guy. Other players are tight and only raise when they have the goods. If you face such an opponent, there’s no shame in folding big suited cards and waiting for another opportunity.

I should mention big, unsuited cards here, too. The following cards are big enough to play speculatively even if they’re not suited.

A-K A-Q A-J K-Q

You can make a strong pair with a strong kicker with any of these hands. You can play them like suited cards in this category, although you might be more cautious with them and less aggressive.

Medium Suited Cards

This category consists of suited cards that are still 10 or higher. They have solid pair potential, but they’re also suited and connected, giving you straight and flush possibilities.

Q-J and J-10 suited are examples of medium suited cards that are “suited connectors.” They’re stronger than most suited connectors.

K-10 suited and Q-10 suited are also examples of medium suited cards. They’re “suited connectors” with a single gap.

You can often get a high pair with such a hand, but you still need to be careful because a lot of your opponents will have a stronger kicker.

Your hope with such a starting hand is to get into a pot with a lot of other players so that you get paid off when you get lucky. In most lower-stakes games, you can justify limping in with these hands from early position. Such games are usually loose and passive, so you’ll often get paid off when the flop hits you hard.

If someone raises before you, though, you have to decide how many players will stay in the pot. You don’t want to wind up heads-up with medium suited connectors. Your goal is to get into a pot with 5 or more players and hit a big hand.

You can also play some unsuited cards that qualify as “medium” strength. These cards include the following.

A-10 K-J Q-J K-10 Q-10 J-10

If you’re a blackjack player, you’ll also notice that these are all solid blackjack hands, too. This is a testament to the strength of high-ranked cards in poker.

These are possibly the most speculative hands in the game, by the way. Play them cautiously from later position if you can get lots of action from passive players (5 or more players). Folding them from early position is often correct.

Small Suited Connectors

I talked a little bit about suited connectors before, but most of the suited connectors you’ll see won’t have a lot of big pair potential. Any 2 cards that are adjacent in rank and share the same suit are classic suited connectors. You can also play suited connectors if there’s a “gap,” although those hands are weaker, for obvious reasons.

So 10-9 suited is at the top of this list, while 5-4 suited is at the bottom of the list. (If you have a 2-3 or 3-4 that’s suited, it’s probably not worth playing. The rank is just too low.)

Any suited connector with a single gap is also worth playing down to 6-4 suited. J-9 suited is at the top of this list.

If you have 2 gaps, you start to tighten up. Q-9 suited is at the top of this list, but you don’t go below 9-6 suited.

Q-8 suited and J-7 suited are also playable.

If you want to see that in list format, here’s how it looks.

Suited Connectors with No Gaps
10-9 suited 9-8 suited 8-7 suited 6-5 suited 5-4 suited
Suited Connectors with One Gap
J-9 suited 10-8 suited 9-7 suited 8-6 suited 7-5 suited 6-4 suited
Suited Connectors with 2 Gaps
Q-9 suited J-8 suited 10-7 suited 9-6 suited
Suited Connectors with 3 Gaps
Q-8 suited J-7 suited

As you can see, there are 17 possibilities in this category, which means you’ll come across these starting hands more often than pocket pairs or big suited cards. Since it’s easier and more common to see such cards, they’re not as strong as the other hands we’ve talked about so far.

You should note that the rank of the cards is a major factor, too. 10-9 suited is FAR better than 5-4 suited.

These hands don’t win unless they improve later in the round. Your goal is to make a flush or a straight, although you’ll rarely catch a 3 of a kind. Small pairs hit now and then, but your hand in such a situation is usually pretty weak—even if you catch a pair of 10s, you’re often out-kicked.

What you’re hoping for with these hands is a lot of loose and passive action. Plenty of callers and no raises is the order of the day.

You’ll want to be careful when catching part of a hand. An open-ended straight draw is great, and a flush draw is even better.

But an inside straight draw is a disappointment.

You should never get into a pot with one of these hands if there’s been more than one raise preflop. These are also hands that are tough to play from early position. At the same time, they’re often easy to get away from on the flop. You either hit your hand or you didn’t. It’s not hard to figure out where you’re at when you have suited connectors.

Big-Little Suited Cards

These are the most speculative hands of all. To qualify for this category, you must have an ace or a king, along with a smaller card of the same suit. These hands include the following.

A-9 suited A-8 suited A-7 suited A-6 suited A-5 suited A-4 suited A-3 suited A-2 suited K-9 suited K-8 suited K-7 suited K-6 suited K-5 suited K-4 suited K-3 suited K-2 suited

These hands are good if you’re playing with loose opponents. You’re hoping for 5+ players in a pot so that you can get paid off when you hit your flush. Like suited connectors, you shouldn’t get involved in pots with such hands if you have more than one raiser.

How big your kicker is matters here, too. A-9 suited is FAR better than A-2 suited, even though the latter has some straight potential. And K-9 suited is far better than K-2 suited, too.

You have some top pair potential with these hands, and when you do hit your flush, you’ll usually have the best possible flush because of the size of your big card.

This is another example of how being suited is such a big opportunity. Many low-limit Texas hold’em players will often play any ace they get, regardless of whether it’s suited or not. If you stick with suited aces, you’ll be ahead of those players in those situations.

Also, the suited big-little aces are far stronger than the suited big-little kings. They’re all weak and speculative hands, though.

Non-Starters That Weak Players Often Play

You should just avoid any hand that doesn’t fall into one of the categories above.

Many of your opponents WILL be playing such hands. They’ll sometimes—and it will seem like often—win with such hands.

That’s okay.

If you have tighter starting hand requirements, you’ll dominate them in the long run by having an edge.

Examples of non-starters that weak Texas hold’em players often play include big-little cards that aren’t suited—like the ace and 9 or a king and a 9. They also include connectors that aren’t suited, like 8-9 or 9-10.

Those are hands you should fold even if you’re in late position. The only chance you have with such a hand is from late position with a naked bluff before the flop. Even then, you need to be facing really weak players to try that move.

Conclusion

It’s easier for me to learn starting hands in limit Texas hold’em by putting them into categories. Here’s a reminder of the main categories I use.

Pairs Suited connectors Big-little suited

Then I can subcategorize them, as follows.

Huge pairs Big pairs Medium pairs Small pairs Big suited connectors Medium suited connectors Suited connectors with gaps

I know a lot of players who are visual and have a lot of luck memorizing starting hand charts. That’s never worked for me. I need to categorize information into buckets before it makes sense to me.

I’ve used that approach in this post to explain these starting hands in Texas hold’em limit games. I hope this way of looking at the starting hands makes sense for you, too.

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Saturday, September 29, 2018

Early Prediction and Betting Picks for Who Will Win the 2018 Ballon d’Or

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Early Prediction and Betting Picks for Who Will Win the 2018 Ballon d’Or

Winning the Ballon d’Or is one of the biggest dreams of each soccer player out there. There are people that don’t like the award that much, including the author of this post, but it means the world to every athlete.

Unfortunately for most of the current players, the prize has been dominated by Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo in the past decade or so. Those two have won the Ballon d’Or five times each since Ronaldo’s first victory in 2008, and the Portuguese forward was first in the rankings in the past two years.

However, there are some early indications that we might see a different winner this time around. Luka Modric was declared as the best player of the 2018 World Cup in the summer, and he won the UEFA Men’s Player of the Year award and the FIFA’s Best Men’s Player award.

Naturally, the Croatian maestro is the hot favorite for the Ballon d’Or as well, but there is still time for that. I think it’s worth exploring the betting odds and checking if there are some opportunities to win cash.

Of course, it’s still a bit early, but I feel the timing is right for an early preview. I intend to go through each of the favorites and evaluate their chances, but before that, let’s start with something else.

How Is the Winner of the Ballon d’Or Decided?

First things first, so it’s probably best to check the whole process behind the final Ballon d’Or decision. I will try not to bore you with too many details – don’t worry.

There have been quite a few differences throughout the years, especially since FIFA actually merged its annual awards with the Ballon d’Or, but the prizes were separated again in 2016.

As a result, the most popular award has returned to its roots and is determined by the votes of soccer journalists from all over the globe. They cast their votes for the best player of the year, and each brings points to the selected athlete.

The man with the most points is the annual winner of the Ballon d’Or. Quite simple, really.

While we’re at it, I would also like to point out that according to the official criteria of the competition, the prize is awarded purely to recognize the individual performances of the player throughout the year. His team’s achievements don’t count.

In reality, we all know that’s not the case. The journalists always have in mind the trophies won at the end. I won’t really get into the argument of if that’s the correct way, because that won’t change much.

The important thing is to actually consider this fact when you bet on the winner. With that said, let’s move on.

Criteria You Need to Evaluate When Betting on the Ballon d’Or Winner

It’s important to know what exactly should be considered when trying to predict the winner of the prize. I will go through what I consider the most important aspects of each player and his performance throughout the year.

Position on the Pitch

A closer look at the list of Ballon d’Or winners shows that certain positions are way more likely to land the award compared to others.

There’s only been one case when a goalkeeper was victorious, and just a couple of defensive outfield players were ever awarded the Ballon d’Or.

Simply put, you have to be a midfielder or a forward to have a chance. As an admirer of the art of defending, this is the reason why I feel the Ballon d’Or is not a justified reward. As a bettor, though, I’m forced to take that into account.

Media Hype

Another important factor, probably related to the first one, is the hype surrounding the players. I’m not sure if that was the case in the early years of the Ballon d’Or, but it’s certainly crucial right now.

With all my respect to soccer journalists that cast a vote, they are certainly at least somewhat biased towards the players who gain the most attention. We all are for the simple reason that the sport has become a huge business.

We constantly hear and watch the achievements of the most popular players across the globe. The likes of Ronaldo and Messi are the best examples of that. We all know how good they are. I would argue that if one of them is matched by another player, the unconscious bias makes the difference.

In a way, I would call that a handicap. Their consistency throughout the years has deservedly built a reputation that works in their favor.

Individual Achievements

Since this is the main criterion according to the official rules of the Ballon d’Or, and it certainly plays a huge role. Simply put, a player has to perform well and show consistency.

This includes playing well on a regular basis but also showing up against the big teams. One of the reasons why Cristiano Ronaldo won the last two Ballond’Ors is his performance in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League.

The Portuguese striker scored a bunch of goals against the best teams in Europe. If you add his constant production against the teams in the Spanish La Liga and Portugal’s opponents in international games, it’s easy to see why Ronaldo was declared the best player in the world.

Trophies and Team Performance

As I already mentioned, the team performance shouldn’t matter for the final Ballon d’Or rankings, but it does. You will often see the best player of the best European team get the award at the end.

Trophies like the Champions League and the top 5 European domestic leagues are considered the most important trophies out there. If a player combines both, his chances to actually rank well are much higher.

International tournaments such as the FIFA World Cup, the European Championships, and Copa America can also have a huge impact on the prize if one of them is played during the year. Since we had a World Cup in 2018, this could be one of the deciders.

Other Individual Awards

I’m not sure if I should put the other individual awards in the list of criteria, as they are more of an indicator of what’s about to happen.

If you see a player win the FIFA Best prize or the UEFA Player of the Year award, you could expect that he will be in contention for the Ballon d’Or as well. The different voting system means that the result may be different, but it’s the same often enough.

Since the UEFA Player of the Year award was founded in 2011, initially as European Player of the Year, there have been only two cases when a different athlete won. On the other six occasions, the winner of the competition and the Ballon d’Or was the same person, including the last 4 times.

It’s safe to say that you can rely on other prizes to give you an idea of what to expect.

Ballon d’Or 2018 Winner Predictions

As I now have explained the main factors behind my thought process, it’s time to take a look at each of the top contenders. Here are some of the favorites to win, according to the bookies.

Luka Modric1.57
Cristiano Ronaldo 2.252.25
Antoine Griezmann13.00
Mohamed Salah21.00

Here’s my analysis on each of these players and their chances of winning.

Luka Modric 1.57

I don’t think we’ve seen someone as close to breaking Ronaldo and Messi’s reign as Luca Modric. The Real Madrid midfield magician has been magnificent in the past year and certainly deserves to be among the Ballon d’Or favorites.

Modric helped his club win the Champions League, probably the most important trophy out there. On top of that, the Croatian won the UEFA Player of the Year Award mostly because of that.

A lot of people believe that Ronaldo should’ve been the man to take it home, including his agent, Jorge Mendes, but Modric certainly was a worthy winner.

I think what makes the Croatian such a favorite is his performance with Croatia at the World Cup in Russia. The side reached the final of the competition for the first time, which is a monumental achievement for a country with a population of only about 4 million people.

Modric was the maestro in the middle for Croatiaand was the best player of the 2018 World Cup.

It was Modric’s partnership with Ivan Rakiticthat was the main reason Croatia went so far in the World Cup. Despite coming second-best against France in the final, his country’s run helped Modric improve his already flawless reputation, as he showed leadership on top of his undoubted skills.

I fully expect to see Modric with the Ballon d’Or as a result of the incredible year he had. However, the price of 1.57 makes a potential bet pointless. There are other players who have a shot, so such odds are too low for my taste.

Cristiano Ronaldo 2.25

The Portuguese forward Cristiano Ronaldo has won the Ballon d’Or five times already, including in 2016 and 2017. Many believed he would be the man to bring the prize home in this year, too, but the World Cup and the fact Ronaldo was snubbed by both FIFA and UEFA changed the perception that his victory was almost certain.

If we exclude the World Cup, the Portuguese striker is probably the man who deserves it the most. He scored a bazillion goals in all the competitions he played in, and he became the most prolific scorer in the history of the UEFA Champions League in the process.

The man is one of the best athletes the world has ever seen and is a lethal finisher. It’s hard to argue that Cristiano Ronaldo at least has a place in the conversation for the best soccer player ever, so he easily covers the reputation and hype criteria.

Where Ronaldo failed, to an extent, is his performance in the World Cup.

While Ronaldo did score a couple of goals that helped him become the most prolific international scorer in Europe ever, surpassing the legendary Ferenc Puskas in the process, Portugal failed to go beyond the round of 16 at the 2018 World Cup.

While this is hardly Ronaldo’s personal fault, it counts at the end. Especially if you consider the fact that Portugal won the EURO 2016, and the expectations were that the side should at least have a deep run in the World Cup.

Despite that, I feel that Ronaldo has a strong case for the Ballon d’Or. He didn’t win the other major awards of the year, but the voting system of this one is different. This gives him a chance to actually win it, and the price of 2.25 is not bad at all.

Antoine Griezmann 13.00

When a player has won the World Cup and the UEFA Europa League, scoring over 30 goals for club and country in the process, it’s only natural to see him as one of the favorites for the Ballon d’Or.

And yet, I don’t think that Griezmann has a realistic chance of winning the award. The Europa League is the second most important UEFA trophy, while the triumph of France was more of a team effort. Sure, Griezmann played an important part in it, but it can’t compare to Modric, for example.

Some of Griezmann’s teammates, most notably Kylian Mbappe and Raphael Varane, contributed more to the success of France at the 2018 World Cup.

Another factor that prevents Griezmann from competing with the likes of Ronaldo and Modric is the style of Atletico Madrid. We all know that Diego Simeone prefers his teams to play defensively, and players like Griezmann suffer from such an approach.

He simply doesn’t have the same opportunities as athletes who are part of attacking outlets, such as Real Madrid, Manchester City, and Barcelona.

This is the reason why I can’t see Griezmann as the Ballon d’Or winner in 2018, despite the juicy odds of 13.00.

Mohamed Salah 21.00

I skipped a couple of players that are priced shorter than Salah, namely Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe. While I respect both and certainly believe they deserve to be part of the conversation, I don’t think they are worth considering from a betting perspective.

Instead, I will talk a bit about Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian forward had a historical campaign for Liverpool, as he managed to break the record for goals scored in a 38-game season of the English Premier League.

He was well on course to challenge Ronaldo and Messi’s domination, but an unfortunate injury in the Champions League final changed his fortunes. He wasn’t able to affect Liverpool’s most important game of the season.

On top of that, his back issues spoiled his World Cup. Salah wasn’t able to start either of the first two games of his country, and he was a shadow of himself in the third one despite finding the net. As a result, Egypt’s hopes were scattered in the group stage of the competition.

A goal in the Champions League final and/or a better World Cup performance would’ve been enough to see Salah among the top favorites for the 2018 Ballon d’Or.

I still believe that the Egyptian was objectively among the best players in the world for the year. He also won the FIFA Puskas Award for the best goal of the year, although this was a robbery, in my opinion.

This is why I would place a tiny bet on Salah at the price of 21.00, just in case. I don’t think he will win it, but the odds are worth a shot.

Final Betting Picks for Ballon d’Or 2018 Winner

All things considered, I would say that there are only two players worth backing: one favorite and one underdog. My main bet would be on Cristiano Ronaldo.

The Portuguese striker was probably the best player out there, and the heroics of Modric at the World Cup are the main thing that could prevent him from winning.

My other concern is related to the fact that the world might be a bit tired of seeing Ronaldo win. And yet, the price of 2.25 for the Portuguese, especially with Messi out of the picture, is simply too good to miss.

PICKCristiano Ronaldo to Win the Ballond‘Or 20182.25

The other option I like is Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian had a fantastic season and deserves a place in the top 3, at least, in my opinion. This is why the odds of 21.00 are too tempting.

PICKMohamed Salah to Win the Ballon d’Or 201821.00
Conclusion

It’s exciting that we could finally see someone else win the Ballon d’Or after Messi and Ronaldo spent the last 10 years taking turns.

However, there are still a couple of months before we know what will happen. This is why I recommend you closely follow the soccer world and make sure to take in mind any potential changes.

The post Early Prediction and Betting Picks for Who Will Win the 2018 Ballon d’Or appeared first on GamblingSites.com.

How to Gamble with Dice – Popular Dice Games and Their Variations

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How to Gamble with Dice – Popular Dice Games and Their Variations

Dice games have been around for centuries—maybe even millennia. Believe it or not, they weren’t always just for people who wanted to gamble. They were originally used as a fortune-teller device for seeing into the future.

Of course, many people learn how to gamble with dice on the streets in their youth with games like craps. That’s far from the only game where you can gamble with dice, though. This post includes several dice games along with instructions for how to gamble on them.

I’ll start with craps because it is the most popular and well-known gambling dice game. Also, just to be clear, I’m only writing about games played with standard 6-sided dice—the kind that are shaped like cubes.

Other polyhedrons exist, but most people don’t gamble with them. They just play Dungeons and Dragons with them.

How to Play Craps

Craps is the most exciting game in most casinos. It’s also often played on the streets. At its heart, craps is a simple game where you bet on the shooter to succeed or fail.

The shooter is just the person who rolls the dice.

A round of craps starts with a “come out” roll. If the shooter rolls a 7 or an 11 on the come out roll, he succeeds immediately. If he rolls a 2, 3, or 12, he fails immediately. If he rolls any other number, it becomes the point.

The shooter then keeps rolling until he rolls the point again (succeeding) or a 7 (failing), whichever comes first.

A bet on the shooter succeeding is a pass or pass line bet, while a bet on the shooter to fail is a don’t pass bet. Either of those bets pays off at even money.

When you play in a casino, you can also take odds or lay odds when the shooter sets a point. You take odds when you place an additional bet that the shooter will make the point, and you lay odds when you place an additional bet that the shooter will roll a 7 first.

This is called the odds bet, and the only way you can place this bet is if you’ve already placed a pass or don’t pass bet. The odds bet has a maximum amount equal to some multiple of your original pass or don’t pass bet.

The casino decides on the multiple, but the higher the multiple, the better the situation is for the player.

Here’s why.

The brilliant thing about the odds bet is that it pays off at its actual odds of winning.

If the point is 4 or 10, a pass line odds bet pays off at 2 to 1. A don’t pass odds bet pays off at 1 to 2 If the point is 5 or 9, a pass line odds bet pays off at 3 to 2. A don’t pass odds bet pays off at 2 to 3 If the point is 6 or 8, a pass line odds bet pays off at 6 to 5. A don’t pass odds bet pays off at 5 to 6 odds

This makes the odds bet the only bet in the casino with no edge for the house. If you placed an infinite number of odds bets, you’d break even, because the payoff odds are the same as the odds of winning.

In most casino games, including all the other bets on the craps table, the payout odds for each bet are lower than the odds of actually winning. The difference between the odds of winning and the payout odds is the house edge.

In street craps, which is basically dice played at home, almost all of the betting is done on the pass line and don’t pass lines. You need bettors who will cover both sides of the action since the casino isn’t there to bank the bets.

In a casino, though, you have a plethora of additional bets you can make at the craps table. The only bets worth making, though, are the pass and don’t pass bets along with odds.

The casino also offers come and don’t come bets, which are bets on rolls subsequent to the come out roll. These bets treat that roll as if it were a new come out roll.

The house edge for a pass line bet is 1.41%, and the house edge for a don’t pass bet is 1.36%. The difference is marginal, and most players enjoy rooting together for the shooter, so they’re willing to miss out on that 0.05%.

The house edge on the other bets on the craps table skyrockets. In the case of some of the proposition bets, the house edge is well over 10%, making these craps bets some of the worst in the house. If you stick with the bets I’ve recommended, you’ll be playing craps about as well as anyone could ever play the game.

How to Play Crapless Craps

Crapless craps, as you might expect based on the name, is a variation of craps. In regular craps, if the shooter rolls a 2, 3, or 12 on the come out roll, that’s called “craps.” It’s an immediate loss.

What do you think the big difference between crapless craps and traditional craps is?

If you guessed that in this version, the 2, 3, and 12 become point numbers instead of craps, you guessed right.

Also, in crapless craps, an 11 also becomes a point number—it’s no longer an immediate win.

This sounds like a great deal, but the reality is that the house edge in crapless craps is far greater than the house edge in traditional craps.

How to Play Die Rich

This is another variation of craps, but Die Rich is craps played with a single 6-sided die. I think that sucks some of the fun out of it, but people play it.

Here’s how Die Rich works.

If you roll a 6 on the come out roll, the pass line bet wins. If you roll a 1, the pass line bet loses. The other numbers become the point number.

The shooter gets 3 chances to roll the point, but if he fails, that’s it. The pass line bet loses.

You can also bet on a specific number coming up.

Here are the payouts for the other Die Rich bets.

Rolling 6 on the 1st roll pays off at even money Rolling the point on the 2nd roll pays off at 2 to 1 Rolling the point on the 3rd roll pays off at even money Rolling the point on the 4th roll pays off at 2 to 1 Proposition bets all pay off at 4 to 1 (these are bets on specific numbers coming up)

And that’s about all there is to Die Rich.

How to Play Sic Bo

Sic Bo is a Chinese gambling game that’s known by multiple names, including the following.

Big and Small Dai Siu Hi-Lo Tai Sai

Instead of playing with 2 dice, as you do in craps, you play with 3 dice in Sic Bo. The Wikipedia article about Sic Bo claims that it can be found in most American casinos, but I don’t believe that.

Finding Sic Bo in a casino is a rare treat these days, as the game has lost much of its popularity over the last couple of decades.

Sic Bo resembles roulette in that you have a table surface with multiple bets you can place. Whether those bets win is determined by the outcome on a roll of the 3 dice. (The casino rolls the dice.)

As a result, you have a large number of bets to choose from when playing Sic Bo. And unlike roulette, the house edge for the various bets varies widely. I don’t have the space in this post to explain all the possible Sic Bo bets you could make, but here are some examples of the bets available.

You Can Bet Big or Small

Either of these bets pays off at even money. A bet on big wins if the 3 dice total between 11 and 17. It loses if the total is 10 or less or 18. A bet on small wins if the 3 dice total between 4 and 10. It loses if the total is 3 or 11 or higher.

Both of these bets have a house edge of 2.78%. (Perceptive readers probably realize that losing with an 18 for big or losing with a 3 for small is where the house gets its edge over the player.)

You Can Bet Odd or Even

This is also an even money bet that pays off if the total is odd or even, but the bet also loses if you roll “triples.” For example, if you bet even and get a total of 6 by rolling 2, 2, and 2, you lose.

The house edge for this bet is also 2.78%, and it also stems from the bets that would normally win if they weren’t “exceptions.”

You Can Bet on a Specific Triple

This is similar to a bet on a single number at the roulette table, only the odds are much longer. For example, you could bet that the dice will come up 6, 6, 6. The odds of winning such a bet are 215 to 1, but the payoff is less than that.

The payoff in most casinos is 180 to 1, but in Macau, it’s 150 to 1. The house edge on this bet is huge, by the way, even with the better payout structure. It’s over 16%.

You Can Bet on Specific Totals

The payouts for those totals are based on which total. Some totals are likelier to come up than others, so they pay out less. For example, you could bet on a total of 10, which is one of the likeliest outcomes.

That pays off at 6 to 1, and the odds of winning are 7 to 1. Or you could bet on a total of 17, which is one of the least likely outcomes. That pays off at 60 to 1, but the odds of winning are 71 to 1. The house edge for the first example is 12.5%, while the house edge for that 2nd example is 15.3%.

As you can see, the house edge for a lot of these bets is really high. The smartest Sic Bo strategy is to stick with the big, small, odd, or even bets. Even then, a 2.78% house edge is high, especially on a game that plays as fast as Sic Bo.

You’d think, at first, that Sic Bo is a better deal than roulette, which has a house edge of 5.26%. But at the roulette table, you’re making far fewer bets per hour than you are at Sic Bo.

After all, in roulette, the wheel has to spin, and the ball has to land. That takes time. In Sic Bo, they just dump the dice on the table.

How much you expect to lose per hour in a casino game is a function of 3 things.

How much you wager on each bet How high the house edge is How many bets you make

A lot of people look at gambling as an entertainment expense. (That’s the right way to look at it, in fact.) Estimating how much your entertainment costs on an hourly basis is a reasonable thing to do.

Let’s look at how much you’d expect to lose at roulette compared to Sic Bo.

You’re betting $10 per spin, and the house edge is 5.26%. And you’re placing 35 bets per hour at the roulette table.

Your predicted hourly loss is $10/bet x 35 bets/hour x 5.26%, or $18.41.

Your buddy is playing Sic Bo, though. He’s betting $10 on every roll of the dice, and the house edge is 2.78%. But he’s placing 100 bets per hour at the Sic Bo table.

His predicted hourly loss is $10/bet x 100 bets/hour x 2.78%, or $27.80.

Even though the house edge on those Sic Bo bets is half the house edge at the roulette table, you’ll lose more money per hour playing Sic Bo.

That’s fine if you like Sic Bo better than roulette, by the way. It’s up to you to decide how much an hour’s entertainment is worth. After all, no matter what kind of gambling game you choose, if you make bets on a game where the house has an edge, you’ll inevitably lose all your money eventually anyway.

Really, You Can Bet on ANY Game That Uses Dice

6-sided dice are used throughout the world of gaming. In fact, they’re the only dice used in most games. You’ll sometimes find RPGs like Dungeons and Dragons which use other shaped dice, but in games like backgammon, Monopoly, and Yahtzee, 6-side dice are de rigueur.

Deciding how to bet on such games is up to you. I like to play Yahtzee for a penny a point with my kids, but I might play for a dollar a point with my buddies. I like to place flat dollar amount bets on who’s going to win at Monopoly. I’m a real degenerate gambler, though, so your mileage might vary.

Conclusion

This post about how to gamble with dice covered 4 specific dice games.

Craps Crapless Craps Die Rich Sic Bo

These are by no means the only ways to gamble with dice. As I pointed out in the final section of the post, you can gamble on ANY game that uses 6-sided dice. You can make up your own rules for such bets, too.

In fact, for most gamblers, coming up with your own bets for informal games played with your buddies is probably a better idea than playing most of the dice games available at casinos.

Any casino game with dice is a negative expectation bet, and you’ll lose money in the long run on those kinds of bets.

But suppose you play Monopoly with 3 of your buddies, and you each throw $100 in the pot—winner takes all. There’s a little strategy to Monopoly, but it’s still mostly a random game. If you know that little bit of strategy while your opponents don’t, you’re making a positive expectation bet.

That line of thinking can lead you to win money in the long run playing and gambling on dice games.

The post How to Gamble with Dice – Popular Dice Games and Their Variations appeared first on GamblingSites.com.

Friday, September 28, 2018

Federal Sports Betting Hearing Packed With Hyperbole And Misunderstandings

Federal Sports Betting Hearing Packed With Hyperbole And Misunderstandings
packed trash

The 90-minute federal sports betting hearing was packed with testimony on both sides, but for NJ sports betting, it's carry on as usual for now.

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Week 4 NFL Betting – Free Picks for the Weekend’s Games

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Week 4 NFL Betting – Free Picks for the Weekend’s Games

Three weeks in, and we’re flying through the NFL season. And while nobody is surprised to see the Rams undefeated and looking sharp in the process, many are stunned and even miffed by some other developments taking place around the league.

For example, did you expect the Dolphins to already be two games up in the AFC East with a chance to go three up on New England this weekend? And what about the NFC North? It’s not the Vikings or the Packers, but it’s the Bears who are leading the division.

As for the Kansas City Chiefs- well, they look like they can’t be stopped. Those who were unsure if Patrick Mahomes had the maturity and skill set to excel in this league can all stop wondering and start accepting the reality.

The dude is a flamethrower and will be the frontrunner to win the MVP until somebody starts slowing him down.

But as all sports bettors know, things can change at the drop of the hat, and every week is unique. Every Sunday during the NFL season represents a brand-new opportunity to make some money.

Think about it.

You’re probably planning on tuning into the action all day anyway, so why not throw a few wagers down and spice things up?

Don’t worry about doing any research or breaking down any film or data, because I already did that for you. I scoured the prices at the best NFL betting sites, and despite the linemakers being great at what they do, I’m confident there are a few lines we can take advantage of.

So if you are looking to be guided on where to go with your picks this Sunday, just keep reading below!

I’ll tell you exactly what I think and why.

Odds Disclaimer Box 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Believe it or not, Ryan Fitzpatrick became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 400+ yards in three consecutive games. Unfortunately for him and the Bucs, most of those yards came late in the second half while trying to play catch-up, so take it for what it’s worth.

Anyone who watched Monday Night Football this past week saw Fitzy toss three picks before the 2nd quarter had even ended. On the road, the Steelers put up a “30 spot”before heading into the locker room to listen to a halftime speech.

I’d even argue that at times, the Bucs looked a heck of a lot like the paltry squad that most of us anticipated them being during the 2018 regular season. Tampa rushed 16 times for just 63 yards, they turned the ball over four times, and they allowed Big Ben to pick them apart for 353 yards while completing 79% of his passes.

I never expected this defense to be any good, and quite frankly, they have been dreadful for the most part all year. And while this offense started out hotter than the sun, I believe their fall from grace gets expedited this Sunday when they suit up at Soldier Field.

I don’t believe for one minute that Khalil Mack and company are going to let a 35-year-old Harvard grad come into their stadium and light them up.

To be honest, as much as I envision “Fitzmagic” struggling, I’m confident that the situation gets even bleaker if Dirk Koetter has the nerve and audacity to insert Jameis Winston into the starting lineup, as some rumors have leaked.

Koetter knows which Bucs QB will start; he just won’t tell anybody outside of the locker room.

I fully expect Jameis to remain on the sidelines, but regardless of which signal-caller receives the nod, I don’t see it going well on Sunday.

This Bears defense is nasty, and expecting Tampa Bay to be able to come in and move the chains consistently just isn’t that realistic to me.

Matt Nagy has enough creativity on offense thanks to the steady progressions being made by Mitchell Trubisky, leading me to believe that the Bears take care of business here without much trepidation.

PICK Bears (-3)-110
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off an emotional overtime loss to their division rivals, the New Orleans Saints. While that was going on, the Cincinnati Bengals were getting beat in Carolina, as they allowed Christian McCaffrey to run wild all afternoon.

Now the Bengals have to play another non-conference road game in a loud and raucous stadium, not to mention the Falcons have been sleeping in their own beds for nearly a full month.

I understand that the Falcons are really banged up and missing key starters all over the field, but hang on a second.

Bengals RB Joe Mixon is extremely unlikely to be in uniform this Sunday, and star wideout A.J. Green is nursing a pelvis injury that will almost certainly keep him from being at 100%. And while Andy Dalton will have less than his full arsenal of weapons, Matt Ryan will have the benefit of throwing balls to Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, the latter who exploded in Week 3 for 7-146-3.

The Bengals are allowing 25.7 points per game, and that number probably balloons after Sunday afternoon.

Cincy has back-to-back home games looming in Weeks 5 and 6 against the Dolphins and Steelers respectively, and perhaps I’ll like their chances of performing more favorably in either of those scenarios.

But coming off a tough road loss and being asked to travel to Atlanta to play an angry squad who lost a heartbreaker in OT- that just seems like it’s above and beyond what Marvin Lewis and his team are capable of.

Falcons head coach Dan Quinn is a good leader, and there is no way he lets his players overlook the Bengals.

Look for Atlanta to win this game handily and get back to .500 on the season.

PICKFalcons (-4.5)-105
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

While it was a difficult and disappointing first two weeks for the Detroit Lions, Matt Patricia finally got his first win as a head coach in a big, big way. Week 3 witnessed the Lions beat up on Patricia’s former crew on Sunday Night Football in front of the entire football community.

And while the Patriots offense seemed out of sorts and discombobulated, the Lions’ Week 4 opponent’s offensive rhythm might not be any more fluid.

The Cowboys offensive unit is a total mess right now, as Dak Prescott has failed to throw for more than 170 yards in a single game thus far.

While it seems that Dallas is reeling before our eyes, perhaps the Lions can parlay theirpositive momentum gained from defeating the Patriots into a good stretch of football.

Week 4 presents a new challenge for Detroit, as their franchise quarterback makes his return to the town where he played his high school football.

Undoubtedly, Matthew Stafford will have plenty of friends and family members in the crowd at AT&T Stadium when this game kicks off at 1:00 pm EST on Sunday.

I expect the former standout at Highland Park HS to put up big numbers, just as he always has against the Cowboys. Stafford is 2-1 in 3 career starts against Dallas, which includes averaging 329.3 passing yards per game.

I’m not necessarily forecasting that Detroit is able to run the ball with success or that Prescott lays another egg leading the offense.

But I’d be okay taking Detroit at +3 if I had to lay -110 like atypical NFL wager suggests. Instead, BetOnline.ag has Detroit listed at +3, but we get that number at the handsome price of +103.

Confidently take the free juice and get ready to see a closely-contested game, one in which the Lions should have the slight edge.

PICKLions (+3)+103
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers

The Packers got thumped last week in Washington, falling to 1-1-1 on the season. The Bills are coming off the biggest upset in the NFL in the last 23 years after they rocked the Vikings 27-6 in Minnesota.

So it appears that all the positive vibes are working in Buffalo’s favor, as Josh Allen finally settled down and looked like a poised NFL quarterback. Green Bay’s D got exposed last Sunday, allowing a 33-year-old running back to go off for 120 yards on just 19 carries, including a couple of scores.

LeSean McCoy has vehemently stated that he’ll be playing when the Bills walk onto Lambeau Field at 1:00 pm EST, so perhaps the Bills have enough “good things going” right now to actually pull off another big upset.

Well, you want my opinion?

Because the way I see it- I’m saying there’s not a chance. I’m saying that Aaron Rodgers comes storming out of the gates and completely bulldozes Sean McDermott’s squad.

The Bills might be riding high after their impressive showing last week against the Vikes, but I’m extremely cautious in my thinking that the Bills will have a game plan in place that will be able to score enough points this time around.

This game sets up as the perfect opportunity for Mike McCarthy to get his team back on track, as the Buffalo defense allowed 78 points over their first two games. Don’t fall victim into thinking that because Mike Zimmer wasn’t prepared last weekend that suddenly Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has an intimidating or stout group.

Remember when Cardinals coach Dennis Green made the famously replayed post-game comment in regard to the Chicago Bears? You know, the one that went like this.

“They are who we thought they were!”

Well, I’m saying that after this week’s game in Green Bay, we’ll go back to thinking that the Bills are the inadequate and soft football team we all thought they were before last week’s surprise.

I’m rolling with the Pack to win this one going away, and laying 104 as opposed to 110 is just the cherry on top!

PICKPackers (-10)-104
Final Thoughts

I can’t wait for Sunday morning to arrive, as the 1:00 pm EST slate of games has enticing matchups everywhere you look. I’ll be following the action closely, as all four games I’m targeting this week fall into that time slot.

But that doesn’t mean you can’t place any wagers on the late-afternoon games, as there is a four-pack of contests scheduled to take place. And don’t forget about Sunday Night Football, as the Ravens and Steelers will clash in an AFC North confrontation that promises to be exhilarating,to say the least.

And with all that being said, the Chiefs playing on Monday Night Football is actually what I’m most looking forward to in Week 4!

Don’t think for a second that I won’t have a detailed and in-depth preview into what I imagine will take place when Kansas City takes their high-flying act to Denver. My betting advice for the MNF showdown will be available on Monday morning, so bookmark this page to make sure you don’t miss out!

Until then, enjoy the games on Sunday!

The post Week 4 NFL Betting – Free Picks for the Weekend’s Games appeared first on GamblingSites.com.

4 NBA Teams That May Not Be as Bad as You Think – Dallas, LA Clippers, Cleveland, and Brooklyn

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4 NBA Teams That May Not Be as Bad as You Think – Dallas, LA Clippers, Cleveland, and Brooklyn

NBA betting is all about trust. Much like betting on baseball, this sport is a true grind for sports bettors, and while everyone is prone to a few bad beats here and there, the main goal is consistent, sustained profit.

This is why people care about against the spread data, scheduling, injuries, and narratives in professional basketball. Individually, these things mean nothing. However, collectively, they can be the difference between cashing and crying every single night.

There is a lot that goes into each individual bet you make, but there’s no denying bettors tend to form biases well before the season starts.

Understandably, what those biases end up being can potentially put you on or take you off of specific teams. It also can end up losing you money.

Some teams will get off to slow starts and burn you, and others will shock you. I’m looking more for the teams that many think will be bad but might actually surprise some folks this year.

That could make them worth betting on in some situations and a tough team to bet against in others.

When those specific situations arise, it’s up to you to make the right call. Just don’t tell me I didn’t warn you that these four NBA teams might not actually be that bad.

Odds Disclaimer Box 1
Dallas Mavericks

Teams don’t rise from the depths of sorrow to win a title in just one season, but they sure can improve drastically. That’s what could be coming for the Mavs, who no longer resemble the 24-58 franchise of a year ago.

Second-year point guard Dennis Smith Jr. is more polished than before, big man DeAndre Jordan anchors the defense down low, and rookie sensation Luka Doncic promises to turn Dallas into a destination city again.

Dallas may not be guaranteed a return to the playoffs this year, but they have a very strong starting five and an underrated bench.

With a good head coach in Rick Carlisle leading the way, the Mavericks won’t be the easy NBA betting target they were for much of last season.

You shouldn’t be betting on the Mavs to win the NBA Finals (+20000 at SportsBetting.ag), but they’re going to be a fun team to watch (and back) this year.

Los Angeles Clippers

The same could be said for the Clippers, who honestly may have snuck into postseason play last year if they could have only stayed healthy.

LA did uncover some gems during a never-ending shift in talent, however, as bench spark Lou Williams proved his worth, and versatile forward Tobias Harris may have sold himself as a franchise cornerstone.

The Clippers also return a healthy Patrick Beverley, replaced DeAndre Jordan with the more offensively gifted Marcin Gortat, and bring back Danilo Gallinari as well.

Los Angeles lacks that one true go-to superstar, but with chatter about Jimmy Butler wanting to come to town, perhaps that isn’t something they have to worry about for much longer.

The Clippers were 42-40 a year ago and have seemingly improved. They aren’t the doormat squad their weak +25000 NBA Finals odds might lead you to believe.

Cleveland Cavaliers

I’ll say the same for the Cavs, who have zero chance at winning this year’s NBA Finals (+50000 odds at SportsBetting.ag) but could be a real thorn in a lot of teams’ sides this season.

King James may be in La La Land now, but Cleveland actually has a lot of talent to lean on.

Kevin Love remains a star player worth building around, rookie Collin Sexton could quickly prove to be quite the addition, and former role players such as Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, and Larry Nance could be ready to take the next step in their development.

I’m not at all saying the Cavs will run it back and meet the Warriors in the Finals again, and they’re not even a lock for the playoffs. I think they have a better shot at postseason play than some may think, however, and they’re certainly going to be a tough out on a regular basis.

Brooklyn Nets

Last, but certainly not least, are the ever-fun and always-competitive Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets are another team that belongs nowhere near title-winning conversations (league-worst +100000 Finals odds), but they love to push the pace, shoot the long ball, and wear opponents out.

The Nets only won 28 games a year ago, but that was a clear improvement over the previous two seasons, and they delivered an exciting brand of basketball in the process.

Brooklyn is another team lacking a true superstar talent, but the likes of D’Angelo Russell, Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, Joe Harris, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jarrett Allen, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson give Nets fans a very solid core that has been learning to play basketball the right way.

The Nets ran the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA a year ago, and if they can improve their overall efficiency, they could top 30+ wins this year. Brooklyn getting at least somewhat better is a given, though, and that means you can’t blindly bet against them anymore.

Summary

That’s the point with all four of these four NBA franchises. They’ll absolutely burn you at times and/or leave you wanting for more, but they aren’t teams you can score easy wins against going into the 2018-19 NBA season.

Even when these franchises face the likes of the Warriors, Rockets, and Celtics, you’re going to have to think twice when you bet on the favorite or opt to go against them when it comes to the point spread.

As always, you’re going to have to figure out when and where to pick your spots. Starting off the new NBA betting season not assuming that these teams can’t aid your process could be a step in the right direction, however.

The post 4 NBA Teams That May Not Be as Bad as You Think – Dallas, LA Clippers, Cleveland, and Brooklyn appeared first on GamblingSites.com.

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Your Guide To NJ Sports Betting As Football Season Kicks Into Gear

Your Guide To NJ Sports Betting As Football Season Kicks Into Gear
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For now, there are 8 retail sportsbooks and 5 online sports betting apps in New Jersey. But NJ sports betting is just getting started.

The post Your Guide To NJ Sports Betting As Football Season Kicks Into Gear appeared first on .

NJ Sports Betting Is Flying High, But Another Wave Of Apps Is Likely On The Way

NJ Sports Betting Is Flying High, But Another Wave Of Apps Is Likely On The Way
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Which New Jersey sportsbook (online or on site) will be next to launch in the NJ sports market is anyone's guess but this is surely just the beginning.

The post NJ Sports Betting Is Flying High, But Another Wave Of Apps Is Likely On The Way appeared first on .

3 World Series Value Bets That Could Win – Analysis and Free Pick

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3 World Series Value Bets That Could Win – Analysis and Free Pick

It’s no secret who the baseball betting sites are vouching for to win the 2018 MLB World Series. The Houston Astros (+375 odds at SportsBetting.ag) lead the way as the defending champions, and the Boston Red Sox (+400) look to be their biggest threat.

Boston has Chris Sale and quite possibly the best offense in baseball, so there’s logic in them being the better overall value. It’s also fair to point out that both teams hail from the AL, and only one of them can even make the 2018 World Series.

There’s still some wiggle room for another AL team to upend both of them, while getting to the World Series is obviously half the battle. Once there, it’s still quite possible someone from the NL’s side could hoist the championship when all is said and done.

These possibilities keep the door wide open to some staggering betting value, even while the final week of the 2018 MLB regular season plays out before our very eyes.

The clock is ticking on your ability to exploit these prices, but for the moment, these three teams offer insane upside as World Series bets.

All odds that are referenced in this post were taken from SportsBetting.ag on 9/25/2018. They may have changed since the time of this writing.
Los Angeles Dodgers (+450)

LA is currently in position to secure the NL West title, but even if they don’t win their division again this year, they can still get into the playoffs. It’s been a very up and down year for the Dodgers, but bettors shouldn’t forget how far they’ve come since a slow start.

On top of that, few teams are as stacked as the Dodgers. Los Angeles can slay any matchup due to their collection of elite power bats, while Clayton Kershaw still heads a very solid pitching rotation.

The Dodgers have the third-best World Series odds because they have unfinished business and hail from the weaker league. After narrowly missing out on a title with a game-seven loss last year, the Dodgers are a very real threat to get back to the promised land and seal the deal.

Cleveland Indians (+750)

Everyone is looking at the Red Sox or Astros. I get why, as the Astros are still the defending champs and are as loaded as anyone, and the Red Sox have the best record in baseball.

As great as both of those teams are, the Indians are still in the mix, yet they can be had at a way better price.

Cleveland has the offense to match both the Astros and the Red Sox.

Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, and Josh Donaldson headline an absolutely loaded offense, while the Tribe also have one of the best collections of aces baseball has to offer.

Corey Kluber leads the way for the Indians, while a suddenly healthy Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco round out a three-headed dragon that even the most elite MLB offenses will have trouble against.

This is a team built to make a deep playoff run, and after falling just short two years ago, Cleveland may be ready again to finish what they originally started.

Milwaukee Brewers (+1800)

You can talk about the Cubs, Rockies, and a handful of others, but nobody offers the combination of intrigue and value that Milwaukee can.

The Brew Crew is still fighting for the NL Central lead, but thanks to their stacked power on offense, they stand a good chance of getting into postseason play one way or another.

It’s true that the Brewers have suspect pitching. Gio Gonzalez is probably the only true ace on their squad at the moment, and even that might be a reach. However, Milwaukee’s dependency on their explosive offense has been no secret, yet they’ve remained one of the better teams in the majors all year long.

The recipe for the Brewers; success is simple: hit some long balls and simply keep the train on the track when it comes to pitching.

Gonzalez, Wade Miley, Zach Davies, Jhoulys Chacin, and Chase Anderson are an odd collection of arms, and none of them are dominant. They all have the ability to manage games and at least give Milwaukee a chance, however.

In the weak NL, simply getting past the other top contenders in their league gives them a shot at an unlikely title.

Summary

I like all of the value here, but I really only have eyes for one team on this list, and that’s the Indians. It’s awfully difficult to ignore the Dodgers at +450 right now, but to me, Cleveland is a title-winning team at an amazing +750 price.

The path to greatness is not an easy one. Cleveland will have to get past two amazing clubs just to make it to the World Series, and while they’d probably be the favorite at that point, there’s still the task of actually beating whoever meets them from the other side.

Still, the betting value is awesome for a team that can pile on the runs offensively and completely shut you down on defense.

Cleveland doesn’t have an amazing record, and they hail from a terrible AL Central division, but they’ve also been coasting for a while now. That’s part of their built-in value and precisely why they could pop up and shock everyone with a crazy run to the World Series.

It’s quite likely this is simply Boston’s dream season, and everyone will have to get out of their way eventually. If you’re looking for a nice pivot and some fun value, though, try the Indians.

PICKCleveland Indians+750

The post 3 World Series Value Bets That Could Win – Analysis and Free Pick appeared first on GamblingSites.com.

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Betting Preview of the 2018 Ryder Cup – Latest Odds and Top Picks

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Betting Preview of the 2018 Ryder Cup – Latest Odds and Top Picks

You couldn’t make this stuff up if you tried.

I mean, seriously.

Tiger Woods wins the TOUR Championship in epic fashion as Justin Rose edges him out for the FedEx Cup title, with that crazy scene of people mobbing Tiger walking up the 18th fairway.

And now we’re on the brink of the 42nd Ryder Cup matches getting underway in Paris, with all these intriguing storylines surrounding the event.

Can it get much better in the world of golf right now?

Because as a fan of the game, nothing is better or more captivating than the Ryder Cup.

Let me be clear, folks – Tiger is back, and he isn’t going anywhere. He’ll be leaned on to lead the charge for the American squad that is absolutely loaded from top to bottom, but it isn’t going to be a walk in the park.

In fact, Tiger and his teammates face two separate challenges this weekend.

The first is Le Golf National’s Albatros Course, as the host track promises to be a demanding setup but fair to those who are striking it favorably. The second is the 12 Europeans who will be trying to pry the Ryder Cup away from the United States’ possession.

Captain Thomas Bjorn’s squad is pretty star-studded in their own right, as Europe has a quartet of players ranked inside the top 8 in the Official World Golf Rankings.

The bottom line is that Friday through Sunday at Le Golf National could end up providing some of the most electrifying and exhilarating golf we have ever seen.

Hopefully, you have been following along, getting completely prepped for the 2018 Ryder Cup with all my blogs that I have been posting during the runup. But now it’s finally time for the best part.

It’s time to attack the betting sheet!

Bovada.lv didn’t disappoint us when it came to providing a wealth of betting opportunities for the action this weekend, and I’ve spent lots of time scoping the situation out. I’ve compared prices and seen what’s available, and it’s clear that Bovada is up to the task, as they are leaving no stones unturned.

To find out which bets are catching my eye, just keep reading below!

The odds referenced in this post were taken from Bovada.lv at 6:00 pm EST on 9/25. They may have changed since the time of writing.
First Player Out for USA in Singles

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to be able to do a little homework and figure out what happened at the last couple Ryder Cups during Sunday’s singles sessions.

When you go back to the 2014 Cup when Patrick Reed was a baby-faced rookie on the squad, you’ll see that Captain Tom Watson sent Reed out second, immediately following Spieth to open up the session.

Being that the young duo had gone 2-0-1 in their previous 3 matches, it made sense. After Spieth was upended by Graeme McDowell, Reed earned a point by holding off Henrik Stenson 1 up.

Now look up the 2016 Ryder Cup, and you’ll see that Davis Love III wasted absolutely no time in sending out “Captain America,” as Reed went off first that Sunday against Rory McIlroy. And I’m sure you remember how that match went, as it was arguably the most explosive singles match in the history of the Ryder Cup.

As you can see from the odds below, Reed is the favorite with the bookmakers to be first US player out this time around.

Patrick Reed+400
Jordan Spieth+500
Tiger Woods+600
Dustin Johnson+650
Brooks Koepka+650
Rickie Fowler+700
Justin Thomas+800
Bubba Watson+1200
Webb Simpson+1600
Phil Mickelson+2000
Bryson DeChambeau+2000
Tony Finau+2500

I can’t argue with the odds here. Unless Reed looks sluggish and isn’t producing points, something tells me he is going to ask Captain Furyk to be sent out first once again.

Actually, it may be more of a “polite request or demand” than just a simple ask, as I fully anticipate Reed wanting the opportunity of striking first.

This time, it will be to try and silence the European crowd.

Despite being the favorite on the board, I still like this bet as one that offers value and upside given the price.

PICKPatrick Reed+400
Henrik Stenson vs. Alex Noren – Who Will Score More Points?

When you really take everything into consideration, including the odds available, I feel like this wager is the pure definition of “spotting value.”

On the outside, one sees Henrik Stenson’s name and knows the major champion has had plenty of success in past Ryder Cups. He is known as one of the premier ball strikers on the planet and generally excels the bigger the moment gets. On the flip side, Alex Noren is a much “lesser-known name” to the average golf fan, as the 36-year-old Swede has recorded just two top-10s in major championships.

Ironically enough, as the only two Swedish players on European roster, there’s actually a decent chance that we see these two men paired with one another during the team format of play on Friday and Saturday.

Sure, there is a chance that Captain Bjorn sends Henrik out with Justin Rose, as the two men have played wonderfully together in past Ryder Cups. But given how “on form” Justin is at the moment, I’m not sure if Bjorn will pair him with a potentially “questionable” Henrik Stenson.

The fact of the matter is that it’s no secret that Stenson has been hampered by a lingering elbow injury all season long, one that forced him to withdraw from the opening event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

After placing 69th at the Dell Technologies Championship followed by a less-than-stellar 29th at the BMW, Stenson missed out on last week’s TOUR Championship.

Perhaps an extra week of rest could be a good thing, but this injury has bugged him for several months, so I don’t expect it goes away entirely by Friday morning. All signs are pointing to Henrik playing a maximum of 3 matches, and there’s a good possibility that the first two of them are in fourball or foursomes while paired with Noren.

Now flip the coin, and you’ll see that while Stenson is nursing an injury, Noren is the one who comes in with the most dashing results at the host venue. After finishing 8th and 10th at the 2016 and 2017 French Opens at Le Golf National, Noren bested the field at the Albatros Course on July 1st, shooting 65-67 over the weekend to narrowly hold off a trio of runner-up finishers.

Depending on how things play out, Noren should at the very least play as many (if not more) matches as Stenson. And as I alluded to previously, the two men may even play the majority of their golf together!

With all that being said, I find it hard seeing Stenson outscoring Noren and even would be okay betting Alex here at even money.

The fact that Henrik is at -170 and Noren is hanging out at +130, now, that just makes me like this bet that much more!

PICKAlex Noren+130
Who Will Win the 2018 Ryder Cup?

It’s not so much that I have some huge hunch as to who will win the Ryder Cup.

But I do know how to look up past results, and I have gotten pretty decentat unlocking value, especially when it seems this obvious.

Let me preface this by stating that I am a full-fledged American who will be rooting hard for the Red, White, and Blue. I’m so happy that Tiger Woods is back and playing great golf again, and I’d love to see him bring the Cup back to America.

But the “betting side” of me looks at these odds and can’t help but think that there is some serious value attached to Team Europe. Take a look for yourself.

USA-135
Europe+145
Tie+1100

Remember, ladies and gentlemen, that these matches are being played on European soil, where the United States has not won a Ryder Cup since 1993 when it was contested at the Belfry.

I’m not doubting the leadership of Jim Furyk and his vice-captains. I’m certainly not questioning the talent on the American roster.

But I am not going to sit here and pretend that the European lineup is anything to balk at whatsoever.

Thomas Bjorn’s squad is full of accurate drivers, which should really bode well on a course that demands that you play out of the short grass if you plan on attacking the pins.

Guys like Rory and Rose are going to be tough to beat, and I sense that Sergio Garcia is going to surprise some people and have a really solid week. That should propel rookies like Jon Rahm and Tommy Fleetwood into putting on dazzling performances as well, which will end up making Team Europe an absolute handful.

I’m not guaranteeing a victory by any means, but I’m not going to ignore the attractive +145 price.

PICKEurope+145
The Review

The bets I have discussed in this post are just a few of what Bovada.lv is offering for this weekend’s Ryder Cup action. You can go as far betting on which player will hit the first shot or which player will sink the winning putt. Better yet, you can even wager on how many matches make it to the 18th hole or which team ends Day 1 on top of the scoreboard.

The options aren’t endless, but there are a plethora of ways to get yourself invested into the 2018 Ryder Cup. Check out Bovada.lv yourself to make sure you don’t miss out on any of the prop bets that are attached to the festivities in Paris.

There’s nothing quite like the Ryder Cup, and your chance to make some money while watching it all pan out is right now.

The PGA Tour will pick right back up next week with the kickoff to the 2018/2019 FedEx Cup schedule as the players head to Napa to tee it up in the Safeway Open.

There’s no rest for the weary, so I’ll be back at it giving you PGA Tour betting advice next Wednesday!

Just check my Twitter page to stay up to date and informed with all my betting tips.

Until then, enjoy the Ryder Cup!

The post Betting Preview of the 2018 Ryder Cup – Latest Odds and Top Picks appeared first on GamblingSites.com.

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