The Milwaukee Brewers were one of the best stories in baseball in 2018. Sure, the Oakland Athletics were fun, and for a second there, the Colorado Rockies were interesting. But nobody leaned on analytics and in-game adjustments more to maximize their talent.
All of the Craig Counsell jokes aside, Milwaukee’s skipper made a lot of bold calls and relied on numbers and trends to inch the Brewers along. It’s hard to doubt him at this point, too, seeing as the Brewers won the NL Central and got within a game of a trip to the 2018 World Series.
Milwaukee is one of the smallest market teams in the majors, and they stretched out their talent and took it as far as it would take them.
The in-season moves to improve on the fly weren’t non-existent, either. They did trade for guys like Mike Moustakas, Jonathan Schoop, and Gio Gonzalez. However, the Brew Crew largely picked up where they left off in 2017 and simply kept getting better.
It led to an unlikely #1 seed in the NL playoffs as well as a trip to the NLCS. It was pretty shocking even in a down year for the National League, so it’s fair to wonder if this was just over-achievement at its finest or a classic example of “lightning in a bottle.”
Either could have easily been the case, but baseball bettors also need to wonder if the Brewers are simply just this good.
Milwaukee isn’t exactly in a cakewalk division, though, so assuming they’ll come crashing back down to earth in 2019 isn’t some crazy notion. The Chicago Cubs will be back to try to take back the NL Central crown, while you probably can’t write off the St. Louis Cardinals, either.
Heck, even the Pittsburgh Pirates were making some noise for a second there in 2018.
All of the doubt has crept in already, and it’s bled into the online sports betting sites. Most sites are not favoring Milwaukee to make it to the final four of the MLB playoffs, let alone the final series.
Their odds rest at 14/1 at the moment, which rings in as the eighth best 2019 World Series odds. Depending on what injuries or moves come between now and spring training, they could drop even further.
Still, the Brewers had a certain mentality to them, and there’s no denying their offensive firepower. If they make the right moves and things break just right, they could actually take the next big step and win the franchise’s first World Series title.
I don’t think it will be easy, and I’m not necessarily guaranteeing it, but this is a team worth rooting for.
Here’s how the Brewers could make it happen.
That aforementioned power is what made the Brew Crew so dangerous the past two years and a huge reason why they may still contend for their first-ever title in 2019.
MVP candidate Christian Yelich bombed away to a career-high 36 homers, while Milwaukee ranked 4th in home runs, 11th in hits, 12th in runs, 12th in batting average, and 12th in RBI.
The main problem for Milwaukee’s offense has always been strikeouts and a lack of production outside of home runs. It’s easy to see that with one glance at the Brew Crew’s walk rate (15th) and whiffs.
If they can get a little more efficient at the plate (7th most strikeouts last year), they could be even more deadly in 2019.
They also can dong the ball as well as anyone, and their aggressiveness on the bases (4th in steals) shouldn’t go unnoticed.
The pop is there, and this is for sure going to be a team that can hang runs on you.
But if they can find a way to get more efficient while not losing that long ball upside, Milwaukee just might morph into the best team in the majors.
If you’re not talking about Milwaukee’s power, you have to give a nod to their bullpen.
Their amazing pitching rotation beyond their starters is a massive reason why they won more games in the NL than anyone else and also a key to their playoff success.
Nobody loves the idea of “bullpenning” their way to a championship, but it’s become an increasingly more acceptable MLB strategy. It’s also pretty much responsible for Milwaukee almost reaching this year’s World Series.
I still think Brewers aces like Jhoulys Chacin, Gio Gonzalez, and Wade Miley deserve credit for pitching above their heads all year, even if they’re not what you’d call true aces.
They survived plenty of games and were spot-on with management, but it’s fairly safe to say this team would have been lost without a lights-out bullpen.
As a whole, this was the fifth best bullpen (3.47 collective ERA) during the regular season, and Josh Hader gives them one of the best closing options in baseball. Add the likes of Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel, and others, and Milwaukee looks very strong to close out games.
I was not a fan of the team repeatedly going back to a struggling Jeffress, but this remains a strong unit and should again be one of the best in the big leagues next year.
One thing people seem to forget is that the Brewers weren’t even at full strength in 2018. Top ace Jimmy Nelson isn’t Clayton Kershaw, but he enjoyed a career year before suffering a shoulder injury in 2017.
After sitting out all of 2018, Nelson should be back at full strength in 2019, and barring some big moves to beef up their starting rotation, he could head an underrated, albeit less than flashy unit.
Nelson has not historically always been dominant, but he does offer strikeout upside, and he seemed to be really turning a corner in his most recent season of work.
I also would hate to miss an opportunity to point out the potential rise of youngster Freddy Peralta.
Command has not been Peralta’s strong suit, but he’s immensely talented and could develop into a key arm for the Brew Crew as quickly as 2019. He flashed with 13 whiffs in his pro debut in Colorado, which is not an easy accomplishment.
He was inconsistent as a rookie, but the talent and upside are clear to see.
There are no guarantees, but if Nelson and Peralta come back and give the Brewers two rock-solid starters, this defense could improve by quite a bit without even digging into their pockets.
Due to free agency and possible movement on the trade block, the Brewers could look a bit different in 2019 than they did when the season ended.
That’s certainly true on the mound, as Chase Anderson is a trade chip at this point, and guys like Gio Gonzalez and Wade Miley need to come to agreements to stay in town.
Offensively, Milwaukee needs to decide if keeping around aging outfielder Ryan Braun is helping more than it’s hurting.
Eric Thames is another guy the Brewers need to make a decision on, while Mike Moustakas appears ready to enter free agency.
Milwaukee could easily opt to move on from the likes of Braun, Thames, and Anderson, while Moose could go to a team deemed more likely to contend.
All of this could free things up a bit for the Brewers to make a splash, and at this point, it makes more sense for them to chase down a true ace.
Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, David Price, and a few others will be available, while the Brewers could also try to swing some moves via trades.
Beyond pitching, the Brewers could be in for an upgrade at catcher. Not every team has a legit catching option behind home plate, but Milwaukee has been dealing with a rotation ever since losing Jonathan Lucroy.
A reunion with Lucroy (who is a free agent) isn’t completely out of the question, while viable upgrades like Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos will also hit the open market.
Elsewhere, mashers like Steve Pearce, Matt Adams, Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, A.J. Pollock, and Bryce Harper (among others) will be available to the highest bidder.
Milwaukee isn’t stacked with cash like the Dodgers, Yankees, and other big market teams, though, so who they can bring in might be a little more limited than some would care to admit.
That being said, there is room for some improvement, and there will be a lot of options for the Brewers to pursue.
Depending on who they bring in, Milwaukee can still add to an already talented roster and get even better in 2019.
You can debate how Milwaukee’s roster will look once the new MLB season rolls around, but what you can’t ignore is that the NL Central isn’t as scary as it once was.
I said it’s not exactly a cakewalk division, and it’s not. But it’s also not an ELITE division.
Milwaukee finished the year with the best record in the NL, but they still had to take out the Cubs in a one-off game to decide the division.
It was a down year for the NL as a whole, but the Brewers still fended off the Cubs and have been very close to them for the past couple of years now.
Chicago has a talented offense, but they were erratic in 2018, and they do not have consistently fearful pitching. The Cardinals are rather similar, and nobody else in this division is a realistic threat to rise to the top.
While it won’t be easy, the Brewers absolutely will be in the mix to repeat, and taking the crown for the second year in a row would at least put them in position to go on another deep playoff run.
One last thing to consider is the fact that the Brewers got to the NLCS because they’re good, not because they’re lucky.
Milwaukee beat the Cubs in Chicago in a game that decided the NL Central division. Prior to that, they had the best record in the NL and earned every bit of that division crown on the heels of it.
They also earned home field advantage and promptly swept a pretty good Rockies team in the first round of the playoffs.
Once in the NLCS, Milwaukee did not waver, as they took a 1-0 series lead and even went up 2-1 before ultimately forcing a game seven.
Recent history suggests that the Brewers could well build on last season’s performance and turn that into another amazing run.
Those Dodgers that just edged out the Brewers by four runs in a decisive game seven? This was their third consecutive NLCS appearance. Winning that game pushed them into their second straight World Series as well.
LA isn’t the only team to be successful once cracking their first NLCS, either.
Chicago had appeared in three straight NLCS’s of their own before this season, while the St. Louis Cardinals played in (and won two) NLCS’s from 2011 to 2014.
The San Francisco Giants also reached the NLCS three times between 2010 and 2014, while the Philadelphia Phillies got here in 2008, 2009, and 2010.
None of this guarantees Milwaukee will be back in the NLCS in 2019, and it doesn’t mean they’ll for sure advance to the World Series (let alone win) if they do.
It does show, however, that teams that reach the NLCS tend to make it there for a reason and that a club like the Brewers could come back into 2019 with a big goal in mind.
Some forget that the Brewers reached the NLCS as recently as 2011. It will be very interesting to see if this is yet another “one and done” Brewers team or if they’ll follow suit like other teams and be back for more.
Are the Brewers locks to end 2019 with the best record in the National League again? I highly doubt it.
However, they’re in a division where they can easily finish the season in first place again, and if they don’t, they should be pushing for second and give themselves a chance as a wild card team.
Needless to say, the Brewers shouldn’t experience some drastic fall-off, and if they can actually enhance their roster, they have the power on offense and arms in the bullpen to piece together another magical run.
Milwaukee has a lot of fantastic pieces in place, and it will absolutely take some big moves to keep them in contention, but I see the foundation of a special team.
More importantly, I don’t see anyone in the NL that is for SURE better than them.
The Dodgers beat them and had more money, but their paid-for talent couldn’t provide some crazy gap. The names and cash make the Dodgers look better, but Milwaukee really wasn’t far behind at all.
Atlanta will be better, and they’ll have the Phillies right behind them in the NL East. The Cubs and Cards will be there, but they’re not automatically ahead of the Brewers by any means.
The NL West has more than just the Dodgers, too, but looking over the NL, it is not a reach to suggest Milwaukee still has a clear path to the playoffs and possibly much more.
That still may involve getting past the Cubs and finishing off Los Angeles, but an improved Brewers team can potentially do that.
As things stand, the top betting sites don’t think the Brewers will win it all, and I hate to say I have to agree with them.
That being said, the Brewers are a fun underdog story, and they are fully equipped to defy logic again in 2019. Besides, away from the top in the World Series odds department is precisely how these Brewers like it.
Baseball bettors can keep doubting them, but not placing any money on Milwaukee in 2019 may prove to be a big mistake.
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