I’ve been waiting to write this preview for a while now.
Considering I’ve logged a countless number of rounds at TPC Summerlin, and I cover the PGA Tour religiously, I’d say that I’m a pretty good candidate for generating a preview to this week’s Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.
But I also happen to be a fairly decent player who has his name on the plaque inside the hallway for winning the 2006 Men’s Club Championship at TPC Summerlin. I honestly can’t tell you how many times I’ve played this week’s venue in all, but I can promise you I know what the players will be facing “to a tee.”
I shot even par there 3 weeks ago and understand the way in which the course will be playing.
I also happen to know a little bit about picking golf matchups, as I’m off to a hot “7-3-1 start” so far since we turned to the 2018/2019 FedEx Cup schedule. Hopefully you have been following along and have benefited from the early season success.
I hope to keep up the pace, which is why I dove into the matchups and browsed the prices that are being offered this time around.
After scouring the sites and comparing what’s out there, here’s what I’ll be locking into. What you do with your money is up to you; I’m just here to offer my advice!
I’ll be honest; I haven’t seen obvious value screaming out like this in a long time.
One site has Sam Burns at +155 to finish inside the top 20, while Jason Kokrak is at +375. Bovada.lv lists Kokrak at +800 to crack the top 10, while Burns is sitting at just +600 for the same wager.
So why on Earth is Jason favored over Sam in their head-to-head matchup at every site I look at? Shouldn’t it be the opposite?
The best of the bunch is at SportsBetting.ag, where we can actually latch onto the former LSU star at even money (+100), while we would be forced to lay -120 on the big-hitting guy they call “Rake.”
I actually like Kokrak as a player and know that his ability to crank out 320+ yard drives is a big bonus at the Sin City stop.
But if you think Sam Burns can’t absolutely rip the cover off the golf ball as well, you just haven’t paid close enough attention.
The 22-year-old stud from Shreveport, Louisiana, has already gotten his feet wet on the big stage by finishing T-3rd last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Sam recorded a trio of top-20 finishes in limited starts on the PGA Tour last season, including one at the most recent Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. But he also ended the Web.com regular-season money list ranked 2nd to clinch his card for the current year.
The kid averaged 320 yards per poke and had a stout 68.27 final round scoring average.
There is no doubt in my mind that Sam is built to be a superstar on tour, and it’s only a matter of time until he breaks out.
This could likely be the last time you’ll ever see him at even money against the likes of Jason Kokrak, so I suggest not passing it up.
Let’s make one thing clear. The only reason Jordan Spieth signed up to play this golf tournament was because he had to add a new event to his calendar to avoid any late-season blunders or potential fines.
Spieth would typically be at home watching football and prepping for the holidays, but now he’ll be in action for the first time since playing in Paris one month ago.
On the other hand, Patrick Cantlay is here because he’s the defending champ of this event. And don’t be surprised if he threatens to go back-to-back, because all this dude does is play consistently good golf and cash bigtime checks.
After finishing 17th at the Safeway Open, Patrick placed 7th last week at the WGC-HSBC Champions in Shanghai. The former UCLA standout is primed to have another good week in Vegas, as his calm demeanor fits well under the circumstances he’ll be dealing with starting tomorrow.
Now flip the coin and look at Spieth’s fiery character and the emotion he shows on the golf course.
Last time we saw the “Golden Child” tee it up individually on tour was at Aronimink in early September, and his 55th-place showing at the BMW Championship was nothing to write home about.
The fact that Cantlay is the defending champion and is coming off a top-10 makes me even more assured about how he’ll perform, while there are too many question marks surrounding Jordan.
I’d lay -110 or -115, so you can imagine what I’ll do with the even-money price.
Believe me, I know first-hand that Ryan Moore had a remarkable career at UNLV, and I know he has won this golf tournament before. I also know that Moore lost in a playoff earlier this month at the Safeway Open.
But were you aware that Moore finished 66th and 61st in his two starts in Asia since? And did you know that Beau Hossler finished 30th and 18th in those two events as well?
I’m actually fairly keen on Ryan having a bounce-back week at his former stomping grounds, but I’m even more acute to what’s been brewing for the former Texas Longhorn golfer.
Hossler was fantastic as a rookie last season, compiling eight top-25s and a pair of runner-up finishes. He co-led the Shriners after 54 holes during last year’s edition (finished T-7th), telling me that TPC Summerlin fits his eye.
Beau might only be 23 years old, but trust me when I tell you that he is wise beyond his years. While most kids his age in Vegas will be out on the Strip partying this weekend, I expect Hossler to be locked into the task at hand.
Despite Moore having a Shriners Hospitals for Children Open trophy to his name, he has actually only cracked the top 42 once in his last four attempts here.
Hossler is +200 to finish in the top 20, while Moore is +225. To finish in the top 10, you’d have to lay +300 on Hossler, while Moore is available at +400.
It’s clear that Ryan has no business being the favorite in this matchup, so I’ll view it as a good opportunity to pounce.
I’m riding with the “nappy factor” here, ladies and gentlemen!
Danny Lee’s wife gave birth to the couple’s first child exactly one week ago, and I’m saying that Danny has more than enough motivation to play some good golf this week.
Welcome to the world Roi Theodore lee! 2018/10/21 3:14am 7.11 pound 20inch and mom is doing good! Thank you for all the love messages! pic.twitter.com/J9voj0xXWR
— Danny Lee (@dannygolf72) October 24, 2018
Aside from being on cloud nine right now, Danny has already played twice this season, and he performed favorably in each occasion. After a top-10 in Napa Valley at the Safeway Open, Lee shot a final-round 66 at TPC Kuala Lumpur to finish 33rd at the CIMB Classic.
Now he’ll tee it up for the first time since becoming a father, and I’m saying he has a strong showing right off the bat.
His opponent in this head-to-head is Rory Sabbatini, who finished 20th last week at the Country Club of Jackson. But he missed the cut at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open last time he was here, and his hot temper might not work well if the course is playing slick once again.
When Rory is playing well, he can compete at any level, but that happens a lot less frequently than the 42-year-old South African would like.
I’d rather not try and guess which “Rory Sabbatini” shows up at TPC Summerlin and instead side with the guy who has lots of positive vibes flowing.
Sportsbook.ag has at least done some homework and has J.J. Spaun listed at +220 to land a top-20 in Vegas. But it doesn’t look like SportsBetting.ag is paying much attention to the 28-year-old SDSU product.
Either that or they’re just dropping the ball, because this dude can flat-out play.
The former Aztec golfer is coming off a top-10 finish at the CJ Cup two weeks ago and took last week off to rest up. The fact that he shot 66-65 and led this tournament after 36 holes last season should give you comfort that Spaun understands how to attack the TPC Summerlin layout.
A disappointing finish on Sunday slipped the SoCal native back into a tie for 10th, but I can assure you that he’ll be out for redemption this week.
I’m not crazy about reaching for these “top-20 bets,” but I’d be even crazier to ignore the value that’s lurking with this one.
I love following the PGA Tour and seeing how the guys fare at the specific course setups.
This week is especially fascinating for me, as I know the course inside and out, so I can’t wait to see how things pan out on Sunday.
Will we see a first-time winner break through, or will a superstar like Rickie Fowler, Bryson DeChambeau, or Jordan Spieth be sitting in the winner’s circle at week’s end?
I’m saying don’t be as concerned with who is hoisting the trophy and instead try and find some matchups you think you can take advantage of. Or you can book the four I discussed above and skip all the dirty work.
Either way, enjoy the golf this weekend, because I know I will!
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