The season has been interesting for both Tottenham and Chelsea so far. Spurs have started exceptionally well in terms of results in the English Premier League, but they struggle with their new stadium and are far from impressive in the UEFA Champions League.
Chelsea has their own problems, as the new manager, Maurizio Sarri, is doing great so far, but there are signs of slowing down. I have a strong feeling that the honeymoon for the Italian will be over very soon, but more on that later.
It’s always exciting when two of the leading teams meet each other, but the match between Spurs and Chelsea could have a much bigger importance than many people suggest.
I will be watching the game for sure, but most importantly, I will be looking to find some good value. For that purpose, I decided to check what the leading EPL betting sites have in mind and share my betting pick and prediction for this match.
Naturally, let’s take a look at the main betting markets first.
The bookies see this one as a close game, and I can certainly agree.
Chelsea is probably slightly better, and Spurs don’t have that big of a home advantage, as they play at the Wembley stadium. Their own venue is behind schedule, and even some of the players admit that this is difficult for them.
As a result, the game is at more like a neutral stadium to an extent, which explains why the prices are so close. I must say I certainly agree with the evaluation of the match result market, and I’m not quite sure if there is any value there.
What I find way more interesting is the over/under goals option. I honestly don’t understand the line offered by BetOnline. Both teams rely on a solid defense and had some problems finding the net against solid defensive teams.
I really think that the line should be 2.5 goals, not 2.75, so I have a strong instinct that this is the market that represents a lot of value.
Of course, I prefer to run a deeper analysis of both sides before sharing my final free pick, just in case I missed something.
I struggle to understand what exactly is going on with Tottenham. The season so far has been a mixed bag of positives and negatives.
At first glance, this is another excellent year for Mauricio Pochettino, as the team is playing well in the English Premier League.
If you dig deeper, though, you will see a bunch of problems all over the place.
Pochettino expressed sadness over the performances a couple of times, and he leaves the impression of a man who is somewhat desperate. He is certainly proud of his work so far, he feels appreciated, but he probably knows that he will never win the Champions League or the English Premier League with Spurs.
Since the arrival of Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola, the competition is insane, and Spurs simply can’t compete with the resources available to some of the biggest clubs in England and Europe.
On top of that, the team has not been at its best since the start of the season. The lack of a home ground and their struggles in the Champions League are somewhat disguised by their solid number of points in the EPL, but the problems are obvious.
The team lacks freshness, which can be related to the lack of transfers and the deep run of many key players in the summer World Cup. It seems that Spurs are still struggling to recover and hit top form.
They are in a position in which this could be fatal, as the fixture list from this game on is an absolute nightmare. Spurs will have to somehow try and keep winning in the EPL while fighting to survive in the Champions League.
Can a squad that already feels stretched and fatigued cope with that? I’m not exactly sure, and it depends on Pochettino’s decisions in the next month and a half or so. If the manager puts the English Premier League as a top priority in his rotations, Spurs could be in a great position come 2019.
The big question will be if the Argentinian feels like the team can fight on two fronts, despite the fact that qualifying for the UCL knockout stages seems like a mountain to climb right now.
I have a strong feeling that Pochettino will try to put his best team in both competitions, at least initially. Any mistake in the Champions League would force him to quit there and push domestically.
With all that said, I feel that Spurs will be very motivated to start the tough run ahead with a positive result against Chelsea. I expect them to patiently try and control the game without taking too many risks.
The defense could hold if it receives enough support from the middle of the park. A clean sheet would be massive for the team because there are enough players up front that can score at any given moment.
This is why I expect a rather conservative approach from Pochettino. He will be eager for his players to play it safe and hit hard when the opportunity arises.
The problem is that plenty of defensive players are either injured or doubtful for this match. Vertonghen is out, while both Trippier and Sanchez are not yet cleared for the match. Considering the upcoming schedule, Pochettino might be inclined to save them and not risk any complications.
Everyone is full of praise for Maurizio Sarri, as his life as a Chelsea manager is off to a strong start. The man deserves it so far, but I think we are going to see the team struggling in the near future.
There are two major issues I can recognize. The first one is obvious to many punters and experts. Chelsea doesn’t have a reliable striker that can score a bunch of goals.
While both Morata and Giroud are great players, I don’t think either of them is capable of being the consistent goalscorer that Chelsea needs.
The Spaniard might be, as he is running hot lately, but he has been very inconsistent during his career. A recent miss on international duty shows how prone he is to going from world-class to a liability.
The second issue I see is deeper and could potentially ruin Chelsea’s season. I feel that Sarri is not rotating enough, and it is starting to show. There is a group of 7-8 players that starts almost every game, at least in the league.
This results in a rather predictable gameplan, and there are signs that the other EPL clubs are starting to figure it out. Stopping Hazard and blocking the wings works well, as Everton showed in the 0-0 draw before the international break.
Pochettino was certainly watching, and he will use the information from this game to help Spurs limit Chelsea as well.
On top of that, the Blues will struggle at some point physically. Some of the players will become tired, to an extent, so Sarri will have to rotate more. I’m not sure he trusts his squad enough, though.
I still think that the under 2.75 goals seems like the best option. Both teams will be reluctant to go for it from the first minute, and both will try to negate the opponent.
The biggest problem is that Spurs have some issue with injuries, but Pochettino will try to make up for that with more protection from the midfield.
Unless an early goal changes the gameplan of both managers, I feel we could easily see a very close game with few chances.
I don’t think there will be more than two goals, so the price of 1.87 for under 2.75 covers that and adds a bit of protection if the teams find the net three times.
I can easily see a tough tactical battle here that probably won’t be too thrilling for the neutral fans of the EPL.
Do you agree with my assessment, or do you think that we might see a back-and-forth game with a lot of goals?
Feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below.
Good luck!
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